Bank Credit Weekly: Virus Vs. Vaccine: Time to Sell the Caa-Bull?

Bank of Communications: Recent AT1 Is Fully Priced; Look Elsewhere for Value

Bank Credit Weekly: Play Safe in Asia or Ride the US Bull?

Bank Credit Weekly: Risk Reduction on Election and Virus Uncertainty

Bank Credit Weekly: Election Risk Rises as Asia’s AT1s Outperform

Bank Credit Weekly: Election Goldilocks Priced-In as Growth Concerns Increase

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Risk markets rallied on expectations that a meaningful economic restart will be brought forward following news of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer's (PFE US)</a> preliminary success rate of 90% in its Coronavirus vaccine trials. Combined with a Goldilocks election outcome whereby President Trump loses the election, but Joe Biden does not win a mandate, Caa rated corporates continued to tighten by more than the Asia High Yield (HY) index and other components of the US HY complex.Following two days of initial euphoria, markets consolidated on news of increased Coronavirus contagion. The growing footprint of Coronavirus related, pre-Christmas, restrictions across Europe and the US may be a headwind for economic growth over the near term.In the rate markets, a sharp jump in US yields early in the week retraced as the week progressed and attracted end-user buying, particularly in Asia. Japanese investors were reported to have been strong buyers of 7- to 10-year Treasuries. One of the developing risks at this point is that the reflation trade does not resurface while federal stimulus is constrained, and near-term economic prospects reduce. A tepid increase in yields could limit the effectiveness of any fresh Fed action. Against this background, almost all Asia-headquartered bonds tightened relative to their benchmark spreads as vaccine progress and US Treasury curve steepening increased prospects for higher net interest margins. Amongst Additional Tier 1 bonds, Thai-headquartered banks led advances as the Bank of Thailand lifted a dividend ban and stated that the financial institutions have sufficient capital and loan-loss provisions to withstand the impact of COVID-19. This sounds like cheer-leading and we are tempted to fade this rally. Concurrently, Turkish HY Senior Unsecured bank bonds materially outperformed their global peers in anticipation of more orthodox monetary and economic policies. Given the starting point for a potential Turkish bank bond rally, we may see higher returns from Turkish- as opposed to Thai-bank bonds.In the debt capital markets, over US$30 billion was raised by financial institutions in USD, Euros and Sterling across the credit continuum. When we noted last week that issuers were likely to bring 2021 issuance needs forward, we did not anticipate a flood like this. In what may have been the busiest bank bond issuance week of the year, the amount issued was almost one-half the amount brought in the prior eight weeks.Market Outlook: Over the near term, positive vaccine news combined with a goldilocks US election outcome lowers the likelihood of excessive US federal stimulus. This should cap additional upward pressure on US Treasury yields until vision increases on likely H2 ’21 US economic growth, post-vaccine distribution. Reflation remains on hold. This could limit US dollar weakness and limit positive impacts on reflationary beneficiaries such as bank valuations and Emerging Markets (EM) assets. Over the medium term, a less expansionary US fiscal policy should reduce upward pressure on U.S. rates and is likely to support yield-seeking, including EM fixed income securities over time.

Risk markets rallied on expectations that a meaningful economic restart will be brought forward following news of Pfizer's (PFE US) preliminary success rate of 90% in its Coronavirus vaccine trials. Combined with a Goldilocks election outcome whereby President Trump loses the election, but Joe Biden does not win a mandate, Caa rated corporates continued to tighten by more than the Asia High Yield (HY) index and other components of the US HY complex.Following two days of initial euphoria, markets consolidated on news of increased Coronavirus contagion. The growing footprint of Coronavirus related, pre-Christmas, restrictions across Europe and the US may be a headwind for economic growth over the near term.In the rate markets, a sharp jump in US yields early in the week retraced as the week progressed and attracted end-user buying, particularly in Asia. Japanese investors were reported to have been strong buyers of 7- to 10-year Treasuries. One of the developing risks at this point is that the reflation trade does not resurface while federal stimulus is constrained, and near-term economic prospects reduce. A tepid increase in yields could limit the effectiveness of any fresh Fed action. Against this background, almost all Asia-headquartered bonds tightened relative to their benchmark spreads as vaccine progress and US Treasury curve steepening increased prospects for higher net interest margins. Amongst Additional Tier 1 bonds, Thai-headquartered banks led advances as the Bank of Thailand lifted a dividend ban and stated that the financial institutions have sufficient capital and loan-loss provisions to withstand the impact of COVID-19. This sounds like cheer-leading and we are tempted to fade this rally. Concurrently, Turkish HY Senior Unsecured bank bonds materially outperformed their global peers in anticipation of more orthodox monetary and economic policies. Given the starting point for a potential Turkish bank bond rally, we may see higher returns from Turkish- as opposed to Thai-bank bonds.In the debt capital markets, over US$30 billion was raised by financial institutions in USD, Euros and Sterling across the credit continuum. When we noted last week that issuers were likely to bring 2021 issuance needs forward, we did not anticipate a flood like this. In what may have been the busiest bank bond issuance week of the year, the amount issued was almost one-half the amount brought in the prior eight weeks.Market Outlook: Over the near term, positive vaccine news combined with a goldilocks US election outcome lowers the likelihood of excessive US federal stimulus. This should cap additional upward pressure on US Treasury yields until vision increases on likely H2 ’21 US economic growth, post-vaccine distribution. Reflation remains on hold. This could limit US dollar weakness and limit positive impacts on reflationary beneficiaries such as bank valuations and Emerging Markets (EM) assets. Over the medium term, a less expansionary US fiscal policy should reduce upward pressure on U.S. rates and is likely to support yield-seeking, including EM fixed income securities over time.

Bank Credit Weekly: Vaccine Rally, Then Consolidation, Drives Outperformance & Turkey Vs Thai Banks

Asia High Yield Bond Index

Bank Credit Weekly: Vaccine Rally, Then Consolidation, Drives Outperformance & Turkey Vs Thai Banks