Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Neil Glynn, FCA, CFA, is Founder and Managing Director of AIR Control Tower.

Neil has near to 20 years of aviation experience, based in Dublin and London, including the roles of Credit Officer at CIT Aerospace and head of global transport equity research at Credit Suisse. 

The quality of Neil’s industry-leading research and forecasting across the value chain is long-recognized by investors (long track record of top tier placing in Institutional investor European Transport analyst survey; ranked #3 in last survey in 2021) and corporates (regular management team/board workshops, conference presentations around the world). 

Neil has also led 10 initial public offering (IPO) processes, assessing the investment case of corporates seeking to attract new investors.

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

GOL – Short-Term Challenges to Navigate Before Delivering on Complicated Long-Term Pitch

GOL - Ramifications of GOL's Chapter 11 Filing

GOL - Chapter 11 Filing In a Bid to Ensure Financial Sustainability

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Azul's valuation looks optically below, but we publish a deep dive illustrating that cash outflow concerns are the key driver.</li>
<li>Heavy levels of payment arrears built up through COVID are likely to take time to wash through the cash flow statement, which should be a watch point for Abra discussions</li>
<li>Given Azul's margins are top tier by global standards, and Abra airlines Avianca and GOL have moderate leverage, we struggle to see major synergies that would change Azul's situation.</li>
</ul>


Azul's valuation looks optically below, but we publish a deep dive illustrating that cash outflow concerns are the key driver.
Heavy levels of payment arrears built up through COVID are likely to take time to wash through the cash flow statement, which should be a watch point for Abra discussions
Given Azul's margins are top tier by global standards, and Abra airlines Avianca and GOL have moderate leverage, we struggle to see major synergies that would change Azul's situation.


Azul – Cash Flow Overhang Requires Structural Solution

Azul SA

Azul – Cash Flow Overhang Requires Structural Solution