Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

I possess investment research experience across asset classes and geographies, acquired at Investcorp (New York) and Howe & Rusling (Rochester). At Investcorp, an alternative asset manager, I was part of an investment team managing >$1bn in discretionary client assets. I was also a member of investment recommendation, monitoring, cross-asset strategy and macro outlook committees that met periodically for investment decisions and top-down views. At Howe & Rusling, a long-only asset manager, I helped cover US large-cap equity investments across sectors for growth and income focused portfolios as well as assisted in managing a US small-cap growth focused equity portfolio. I possess an MBA in finance and corporate accounting from University of Rochester in US, a CFA Charter, and an Engineering degree from Indian Institute of Technology Bombay in India.  

My current focus is L/S equity fundamental research across market cap and sectors with an eye on corporate governance and forensic accounting. I am currently based in India and my current coverage universe is biased towards India.

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Regulatory Disclosure: Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details -
Address: A-602, Titanium Business Park, Makarba, Ahmedabad - 380051 |
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com |
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer -
Name: Ankit Agrawal |
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com |
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Avid Bioservices: Strong Quarterly Performance Led to 25%+ Re-Rating Last Week. More to Go.

Avid Bioservices: Reports Largest Quarterly Profit Ever; Robust Guidance and Attractive Valuation

US Hidden Gems | Avid Bioservices: Transitioning Avidly to Pure-Play Biologics CDMO

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avid-bioservices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13309:1" rel="noopener">Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO US)</a> reported record revenues in Q3FY21 of of USD 21.8mm (61% YoY Growth). More importantly it reported its highest ever order backlog of USD 120mm (80% QoQ Growth). Avid's order backlog, since it became a pure-play CDMO in late 2017, has tended to be in the USD 40-70mm range. The current order backlog puts Avid into a completely different orbit. This has also led Avid to raise its FY21 (May 2020 - Apr 2021) revenue guidance to USD 88-91mm from previous guidance of USD 84-88mm.</p>
<p>The strong operational performance at Avid, particularly over the past three quarters, has propelled Avid's stock up ~2x over the past seven months, since we initiated coverage on it at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/us-hidden-gems-avid-bioservices-transitioning-avidly-to-pure-play-biologics-cdmo" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42254" rel="noopener">US Hidden Gems | Avid Bioservices: Transitioning Avidly to Pure-Play Biologics CDMO</a>.</p>
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<p>Note that yesterday, Avid's stock was down over -8% in anticipation of pricing uncertainty and/or hedging activity around its USD 125mm senior unsecured exchangeable note offering. The pricing has been since announced and we think it came out quite favorable with annual coupon rate of just 1.25% with an option for Avid to redeem in full in cash during Mar 2024 to Sep 2025 period, subject to certain conditions.</p>
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Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO US) reported record revenues in Q3FY21 of of USD 21.8mm (61% YoY Growth). More importantly it reported its highest ever order backlog of USD 120mm (80% QoQ Growth). Avid's order backlog, since it became a pure-play CDMO in late 2017, has tended to be in the USD 40-70mm range. The current order backlog puts Avid into a completely different orbit. This has also led Avid to raise its FY21 (May 2020 - Apr 2021) revenue guidance to USD 88-91mm from previous guidance of USD 84-88mm.
The strong operational performance at Avid, particularly over the past three quarters, has propelled Avid's stock up ~2x over the past seven months, since we initiated coverage on it at US Hidden Gems | Avid Bioservices: Transitioning Avidly to Pure-Play Biologics CDMO.

Note that yesterday, Avid's stock was down over -8% in anticipation of pricing uncertainty and/or hedging activity around its USD 125mm senior unsecured exchangeable note offering. The pricing has been since announced and we think it came out quite favorable with annual coupon rate of just 1.25% with an option for Avid to redeem in full in cash during Mar 2024 to Sep 2025 period, subject to certain conditions.


Avid Bioservices | Up ~2x in 7 Months - Since We Initiated Coverage; Highest Ever Order Backlog