Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Real or inflation adjusted GDP fell by 0.5% in the September quarter, the worst quarterly outcome since the financial crisis and the second worst outcome since the recession of the early 1990s.</li><li>The outright contraction in real GDP however, belies underlying strength in the economy.  Nominal GDP lifted by 0.5% and expanded by 3% in the year to the September quarter.  The nominal economy - which is a more important barometer for stock investors than real growth - is gradually pulling out of a five year long income recession, assisted by higher commodity prices.</li><li>The income recession has created a difficult environment for corporate profitability.  Consensus 12mth forward EPS estimates for the ASX200 companies remain around one-third lower than their pre-GFC peak.  Consistent with the recent re-bound in global commodity prices and nominal GDP, forecast profitability appears to have bottomed in early 2016.</li></ul>

Real or inflation adjusted GDP fell by 0.5% in the September quarter, the worst quarterly outcome since the financial crisis and the second worst outcome since the recession of the early 1990s.The outright contraction in real GDP however, belies underlying strength in the economy.  Nominal GDP lifted by 0.5% and expanded by 3% in the year to the September quarter.  The nominal economy - which is a more important barometer for stock investors than real growth - is gradually pulling out of a five year long income recession, assisted by higher commodity prices.The income recession has created a difficult environment for corporate profitability.  Consensus 12mth forward EPS estimates for the ASX200 companies remain around one-third lower than their pre-GFC peak.  Consistent with the recent re-bound in global commodity prices and nominal GDP, forecast profitability appears to have bottomed in early 2016.

Australia's Negative 3q GDP Shock Belies Underlying Strength