AUCT: Auctioned Vehicle Volumes Grow in Line with Rising NPL Trend

AUCT: Expect 2Q21 Earnings Should Be the Bottom Quarter of the Year

AUCT: Expect Auction Volume Hit the Record High in 4Q21

AUCT: Raising Commission Fee Will Boost 2H20 Performance

AUCT: Safe-Haven Stock in the Thai Market

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>AUCT’s 3Q20 net profit was at Bt40m (-31%YoY, -44%QoQ). The 9M20 result accounted for 67% of 2020E earnings forecast.</strong></p><div>• The fall in 3Q20 earnings was pressured by a drop in revenue to Bt192m <br>(-4%YoY,-15%QoQ) from a decrease in number of vehicle that entered the auction due to the debt moratorium policy from Bank of Thailand.</div><div></div><div>• Statistically, number of vehicles that enter an auctions have a strong correlation with NPL ratio. In 3Q20, NPL number decreased to 1.58% from 1.88% in 2Q20 and 2.09% in 1Q20. We expect auction volume will continue to decrease in 2021 along with economic recovery.</div><div></div><div>• We expect 4Q20 performance to grow both YoY and QoQ due to 1) high seasonality, 2) higher vehicle units that entered the auction, and 3) an increase in revenue from raising commission fee by 12.5% since 15 Aug 2020.</div><div></div><div>
<strong>We downgrade AUCT rating from BUY to HOLD rating with a new target price of Bt10 (Previous TP of Bt14). The downgrade reflected lower-than-expected auction volume in 2020-21E. Our target price based on 20xPE’21E which is world consumer discretionary sector.</strong>
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AUCT’s 3Q20 net profit was at Bt40m (-31%YoY, -44%QoQ). The 9M20 result accounted for 67% of 2020E earnings forecast.• The fall in 3Q20 earnings was pressured by a drop in revenue to Bt192m  (-4%YoY,-15%QoQ) from a decrease in number of vehicle that entered the auction due to the debt moratorium policy from Bank of Thailand.• Statistically, number of vehicles that enter an auctions have a strong correlation with NPL ratio. In 3Q20, NPL number decreased to 1.58% from 1.88% in 2Q20 and 2.09% in 1Q20. We expect auction volume will continue to decrease in 2021 along with economic recovery.• We expect 4Q20 performance to grow both YoY and QoQ due to 1) high seasonality, 2) higher vehicle units that entered the auction, and 3) an increase in revenue from raising commission fee by 12.5% since 15 Aug 2020.
We downgrade AUCT rating from BUY to HOLD rating with a new target price of Bt10 (Previous TP of Bt14). The downgrade reflected lower-than-expected auction volume in 2020-21E. Our target price based on 20xPE’21E which is world consumer discretionary sector.


AUCT: 3Q20 Earnings Was Pressured by Debt Moratorium Policy

Union Auction

AUCT: 3Q20 Earnings Was Pressured by Debt Moratorium Policy