European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Carrefour - Alimentation Couche-Tard Non-Binding Offer

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Auchan, together with private equity, explores a possible €23.5/share offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carrefour-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21409:1" rel="noopener">Carrefour SA (CA FP)</a> (pro forma €105 billion revenues and 500,000 employees), after last October's attempt failed. Synergies should be sizeable. </li>
<li>On a simple LBO model, at year 5, the cumulative IRR would be 15.0%, and leverage would be 3.8x. Anti-trust and political hurdles are to be expected.</li>
<li>The creation of a French champion, should likely be favoured by French politicians. Recommendation is long CA FP, underpinned by a 22e 9.6% FCF yield, with potential offer upside.</li>
</ul>


Auchan, together with private equity, explores a possible €23.5/share offer for Carrefour SA (CA FP) (pro forma €105 billion revenues and 500,000 employees), after last October's attempt failed. Synergies should be sizeable. 
On a simple LBO model, at year 5, the cumulative IRR would be 15.0%, and leverage would be 3.8x. Anti-trust and political hurdles are to be expected.
The creation of a French champion, should likely be favoured by French politicians. Recommendation is long CA FP, underpinned by a 22e 9.6% FCF yield, with potential offer upside.


Auchan/Carrefour: Ongoing Merger Plans, LBO