New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Arvida Group<br>FY21 Preview — Ageing Well</h2>
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<p><strong>OUTPERFORM</strong></p>
<p>We expect a solid FY21 result from&nbsp;Arvida&nbsp;(ARV) when it reports on Tuesday, 25 May with a robust second half recovery following a soft first half on the back of COVID-19&nbsp;and the resulting subdued sales activity post&nbsp;lockdowns. Of particular interest will be; (1) updated insights into the sell down of its care suites at Copper Crest and Aria Bay, (2) recent pricing decisions and outlook, and (3) refined/revised FY22 development guidance (currently 200+ units).</p>
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<h3>Key points of interest</h3>
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<li><strong>Pricing insights</strong>:&nbsp;In light of New&nbsp;Zealand's&nbsp;strong recent HPI, any insights into recent and prospective pricing decisions will be of interest.</li>
<li><strong>Change in management team</strong>:&nbsp;ARV has&nbsp;recently announced the resignation of&nbsp;CEO, Bill McDonald. Current CFO, Jeremy&nbsp;Nicoll&nbsp;will assume the role of CEO in September. We expect no change in&nbsp;strategy but look for an update on CFO direction.&nbsp;</li>
<li><strong>Development update</strong>:&nbsp;Current FY22 guidance is for 200+ units, we look for any further insights and updates on key development projects, particularly at its two&nbsp;greenfield&nbsp;sites&nbsp;Te Puna&nbsp;Waiora&nbsp;(Kerikeri) and&nbsp;Waimea&nbsp;Plains (Richmond).</li>
<li><strong>Recent trading</strong>:&nbsp;Sales momentum&nbsp;has been strong with steady sequential improvements over recent quarters, we look for a continuation of this and any insights into care suite sales at its recently completed Copper Crest and Aria Bay sites.</li>
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<h3>Investor briefing&nbsp;&nbsp;— 10:30am NZ time on Tuesday 25, May</h3>
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<p>Dial in details; New Zealand: 0800 667 018, Australia: 1 800 148 258. Passcode; 3415879</p>
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<div><strong>Aaron Ibbotson</strong></div>
<div><a href="mailto:aaron.ibbotson@forsythbarr.co.nz" target="_blank" rel="noopener">aaron.ibbotson@forsythbarr.co.<wbr>nz</a></div>
<div>+64 9 368 0024</div>
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<div><strong>Matt Montgomerie</strong></div>
<div><a href="mailto:matt.montgomerie@forsythbarr.co.nz" target="_blank" rel="noopener">matt.montgomerie@forsythbarr.<wbr>co.nz</a></div>
<div>+64 9 368 0124</div>
</div>
</div>

Arvida Group FY21 Preview — Ageing Well

OUTPERFORM
We expect a solid FY21 result from&nbsp;Arvida&nbsp;(ARV) when it reports on Tuesday, 25 May with a robust second half recovery following a soft first half on the back of COVID-19&nbsp;and the resulting subdued sales activity post&nbsp;lockdowns. Of particular interest will be; (1) updated insights into the sell down of its care suites at Copper Crest and Aria Bay, (2) recent pricing decisions and outlook, and (3) refined/revised FY22 development guidance (currently 200+ units).


Key points of interest



Pricing insights:&nbsp;In light of New&nbsp;Zealand's&nbsp;strong recent HPI, any insights into recent and prospective pricing decisions will be of interest.
Change in management team:&nbsp;ARV has&nbsp;recently announced the resignation of&nbsp;CEO, Bill McDonald. Current CFO, Jeremy&nbsp;Nicoll&nbsp;will assume the role of CEO in September. We expect no change in&nbsp;strategy but look for an update on CFO direction.&nbsp;
Development update:&nbsp;Current FY22 guidance is for 200+ units, we look for any further insights and updates on key development projects, particularly at its two&nbsp;greenfield&nbsp;sites&nbsp;Te Puna&nbsp;Waiora&nbsp;(Kerikeri) and&nbsp;Waimea&nbsp;Plains (Richmond).
Recent trading:&nbsp;Sales momentum&nbsp;has been strong with steady sequential improvements over recent quarters, we look for a continuation of this and any insights into care suite sales at its recently completed Copper Crest and Aria Bay sites.



Investor briefing&nbsp;&nbsp;— 10:30am NZ time on Tuesday 25, May


Dial in details; New Zealand: 0800 667 018, Australia: 1 800 148 258. Passcode; 3415879



Aaron Ibbotson
aaron.ibbotson@forsythbarr.co.nz
+64 9 368 0024





Matt Montgomerie
matt.montgomerie@forsythbarr.co.nz
+64 9 368 0124



Arvida Group: FY21 Preview — Ageing Well