India Equity Value investor, Trivikram Consultants

Prashant Vaishampayan

India Equity Value investor

Picking Long Term Multi-bagger stocks

Trivikram Consultants

Trivikram Consultants is an equity research service founded by Prashant Vaishampayan, a registered Research Analyst with SEBI in India. Prashant has done equity research since 1992.  He worked with Jardine Fleming, SG Securities, UBS and Kotak Securities. Since 2010, he is managing his portfolio and doing outsourced equity research for institutional clients. A team of six professionals helps him in equity research. We focus on pharma, agro-chemicals, auto and auto components, banks and financial services, specialty chemicals and niche manufacturing sectors.   

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13310" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13310:1">Apcotex Industries (APCO IN)</a> reported 2QFY19 results in line with our expectations. The revenues were 5% higher than our estimates at Rs.1,601 mn. EBITDA margin was in line with our estimates at 12.3% for the quarter. It reported mark to market loss of Rs 4mn on the investments that led it to report  PAT of Rs101mn, 13% lower than our estimates of Rs 117 mn.
Operations at a major export customer of Apcotex have been shut due to a fire in April-18. This has affected the volumes and management expects this to continue in the next few quarters.
We forecast a revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 15%/20%/16% respectively over FY18-21E.  We have revised our FY19-20E EPS estimates to Rs.20.8/25.4 respectively and we expect FY21E EPS to be Rs.29.1. Our fair value estimate of Apcotex comes to Rs.675/- (unchanged) over the next 12 months.
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>
Particulars
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
FY17
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
FY18
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
FY19E
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
FY20E
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
FY21E
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
PE (x)
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
           36
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
              29
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
              26
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
              21
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
              19
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
RoE
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
13%
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
17%
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
16%
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
17%
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
18%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
RoCE
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
16%
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
23%
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
23%
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
23%
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
24%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Apcotex Annual Report 2018, Trivikram Consultants Research as of 26th November 2018</div>
<div class="content-caption">E = Estimates</div>

Apcotex Industries (APCO IN) reported 2QFY19 results in line with our expectations. The revenues were 5% higher than our estimates at Rs.1,601 mn. EBITDA margin was in line with our estimates at 12.3% for the quarter. It reported mark to market loss of Rs 4mn on the investments that led it to report  PAT of Rs101mn, 13% lower than our estimates of Rs 117 mn.
Operations at a major export customer of Apcotex have been shut due to a fire in April-18. This has affected the volumes and management expects this to continue in the next few quarters.
We forecast a revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 15%/20%/16% respectively over FY18-21E.  We have revised our FY19-20E EPS estimates to Rs.20.8/25.4 respectively and we expect FY21E EPS to be Rs.29.1. Our fair value estimate of Apcotex comes to Rs.675/- (unchanged) over the next 12 months.




Particulars


FY17


FY18


FY19E


FY20E


FY21E




PE (x)


           36


              29


              26


              21


              19




RoE


13%


17%


16%


17%


18%




RoCE


16%


23%


23%


23%


24%




Source: Apcotex Annual Report 2018, Trivikram Consultants Research as of 26th November 2018
E = Estimates

Apcotex Industries- 2QFY19- In Line Performance