Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Victor Galliano is an experienced equity banks analyst, having covered Latin America banks and non-bank financials for over 12 years, as well as more recently covering the Italian banks. He has worked in sell side equity research for 30 years in a career spanning Barclays, HSBC, BBVA LatInvest, Barings and NatWest.
Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.
The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Financials & FinTech research

Kakao Pay IPO: Offering Detail & Valuation Issues

Alibaba:  Reversal Trade Could Run. EM Funds Underweight & Far from Overstretched

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>PBoC’s regulatory pressure and scrutiny are seemingly coming to a head at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK)</a> </li>
<li>At the China Digital Summit, the disclosure of “co-operation” between Ant Group and regulator implies that PBoC has secured that Ant Group  share their “big data” lake and capabilities with the PBoC</li>
<li>This news regarding big data sharing signals diminishing regulatory risk going forward</li>
<li>Bloomberg Intelligence reported that the Ant Group valuation could be as low as USD29bn; we see this as too bearish, even in the worst case</li>
<li>Even under our “new reality” business valuation, we arrive at an SOTP valuation range – which factors in the cost of capital needs – of USD41bn to USD62bn</li>
<li>We turn constructive on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>, with a great deal of Ant Group regulatory risk discounted, and given Alibaba’s attractive valuations relative to its peer group</li>
<li>Risks to our constructive view on Alibaba include a bigger than expected capital call as a core shareholder, to capitalise Ant Group’s credit business, and a worse than expected loss of payments market share from e-Yuan introduction</li>
</ul>


PBoC’s regulatory pressure and scrutiny are seemingly coming to a head at Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK) 
At the China Digital Summit, the disclosure of “co-operation” between Ant Group and regulator implies that PBoC has secured that Ant Group  share their “big data” lake and capabilities with the PBoC
This news regarding big data sharing signals diminishing regulatory risk going forward
Bloomberg Intelligence reported that the Ant Group valuation could be as low as USD29bn; we see this as too bearish, even in the worst case
Even under our “new reality” business valuation, we arrive at an SOTP valuation range – which factors in the cost of capital needs – of USD41bn to USD62bn
We turn constructive on Alibaba Group (BABA US), with a great deal of Ant Group regulatory risk discounted, and given Alibaba’s attractive valuations relative to its peer group
Risks to our constructive view on Alibaba include a bigger than expected capital call as a core shareholder, to capitalise Ant Group’s credit business, and a worse than expected loss of payments market share from e-Yuan introduction


Ant Group-Alibaba (BABA): Are We There Yet?