Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

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Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) provided further guidance to their asset purchase programme after their final  meeting for 2020, while current policy settings were left unchanged. Despite an upgraded economic outlook, prospective policy has become more dovish following nuanced changes to the FOMC's economic objectives, notably for inflation and the unemployment rate.
It is impossible for the FOMC to counter near-term economic weakness due to new COVID-19 shutdowns, courtesy of transmission mechanism lags, but if the recovery falters in the spring then policy settings will be eased further. US consumers have bought into the idea that economic headwinds from the second wave of shutdowns will be short-lived and that conditions will improve to facilitate higher spending, particularly in 2021 H2.
Household balance sheets remain robust and aggregate net worth has reached new all-time highs, thereby suggesting that consumer spending headwinds from the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be short-lived. The strength of the housing market would indicate that additional asset purchases by the Fed are unnecessary in stark contrast to the experience of the Great Recession.
Financial conditions are already accommodative, and, consequently, any  unnecessary monetary policy easing in the near-term could raise threats to stability, an outcome the FOMC seeks to avoid.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) provided further guidance to their asset purchase programme after their final  meeting for 2020, while current policy settings were left unchanged. Despite an upgraded economic outlook, prospective policy has become more dovish following nuanced changes to the FOMC's economic objectives, notably for inflation and the unemployment rate.
It is impossible for the FOMC to counter near-term economic weakness due to new COVID-19 shutdowns, courtesy of transmission mechanism lags, but if the recovery falters in the spring then policy settings will be eased further. US consumers have bought into the idea that economic headwinds from the second wave of shutdowns will be short-lived and that conditions will improve to facilitate higher spending, particularly in 2021 H2.
Household balance sheets remain robust and aggregate net worth has reached new all-time highs, thereby suggesting that consumer spending headwinds from the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be short-lived. The strength of the housing market would indicate that additional asset purchases by the Fed are unnecessary in stark contrast to the experience of the Great Recession.
Financial conditions are already accommodative, and, consequently, any  unnecessary monetary policy easing in the near-term could raise threats to stability, an outcome the FOMC seeks to avoid.     

Another Merry Christmas from the Fed: Dovish Guidance on Policy Outlook