FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

<p><em>On Tuesday, Fonterra’s GlobalDairyTrade biweekly dairy auction results are released around 14:00 to 15:00 GMT, the Q4 New Zealand labour data is due at 21:45 GMT and the RBNZ Governor discusses the economic outlook and the policy targets agreement 2:15 hours later at 00:00GMT.  These events have the capacity to set the tone for the NZD and must be viewed in the context of the easing bias re-instated in the RBNZ policy statement last week.  Ahead of these events, the RBA releases its latest rates decision at 03:00 GMT Tuesday morning. With a number of traders focused on the AUD/NZD, and several banks recommending trades in this cross (mostly long AUD/NZD), these events bear close attention.  Dairy prices remain mired at low levels and Fonterra sees excess supply weighing on prices for some time.  Low dairy prices contributed to four rate cuts last year in New Zealand and a weaker NZD in recent years. However, the New Zealand domestic economy has recovered solidly in recent months from a down-turn in the first half of 2015, this may result in a stronger than expected Q4 employment report.  The RBNZ Governor ultimately may set the tone.  After reinstating an easing bias last week, he will presumably sound dovish. But it remains to be seen how dovish; the market is already close to 50% priced for a rate cut in March.  We see some risk that he firms up the case for acting sooner rather than later.  As discussed yesterday (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ampgfx-rba-may-outline-a-more-dovish-agenda" target="_blank">AmpGFX – RBA may outline a more dovish agenda; 1 Feb</a>) the risk is that the RBA surprises with a more dovish assessment in its policy statement earlier on Tuesday.  The combination of these events suggests that there is a risk of whippy trading in AUD/NZD early this week.  We have squared up, and will evaluate these events for trading opportunities.</em></p>

On Tuesday, Fonterra’s GlobalDairyTrade biweekly dairy auction results are released around 14:00 to 15:00 GMT, the Q4 New Zealand labour data is due at 21:45 GMT and the RBNZ Governor discusses the economic outlook and the policy targets agreement 2:15 hours later at 00:00GMT.  These events have the capacity to set the tone for the NZD and must be viewed in the context of the easing bias re-instated in the RBNZ policy statement last week.  Ahead of these events, the RBA releases its latest rates decision at 03:00 GMT Tuesday morning. With a number of traders focused on the AUD/NZD, and several banks recommending trades in this cross (mostly long AUD/NZD), these events bear close attention.  Dairy prices remain mired at low levels and Fonterra sees excess supply weighing on prices for some time.  Low dairy prices contributed to four rate cuts last year in New Zealand and a weaker NZD in recent years. However, the New Zealand domestic economy has recovered solidly in recent months from a down-turn in the first half of 2015, this may result in a stronger than expected Q4 employment report.  The RBNZ Governor ultimately may set the tone.  After reinstating an easing bias last week, he will presumably sound dovish. But it remains to be seen how dovish; the market is already close to 50% priced for a rate cut in March.  We see some risk that he firms up the case for acting sooner rather than later.  As discussed yesterday (AmpGFX – RBA may outline a more dovish agenda; 1 Feb) the risk is that the RBA surprises with a more dovish assessment in its policy statement earlier on Tuesday.  The combination of these events suggests that there is a risk of whippy trading in AUD/NZD early this week.  We have squared up, and will evaluate these events for trading opportunities.

AmpGFX - Super-Tuesday for AUD and NZD