FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>The NZD rallied sharply in an extraordinary reaction to a rate cut on Thursday.  Even though the cut was fully anticipated, I cannot recall such a powerful perverse response to an RBNZ rate decision.  It illustrates the lower liquidity in FX markets in recent years around key events as banks and the wider market rely heavily on electronic platforms and bank trading desks recoil from taking risk.  It also reflected the global scramble for diminishing yield, pent-up demand for emerging markets and a degree of capitulation in USD long positions, many of which may have been established after the rebound in US payrolls data.  I have read some analysis that the RBNZ made a so-called hawkish rate cut.  However, this is far from the case.  They have projected one and more likely two more 25bp rate cuts by mid-2017.  While some may say this is not enough to weaken the NZD, it fails to recognize that the RBNZ has based this projection on a steady decline in the NZD exchange rate.  Its alternative scenario is that it cuts much deeper by more than 1 percentage point to a low in rates near 0.75% if the exchange rate remains unchanged.  It has clearly linked its rates outlook with the exchange rate and suggests that it will cut rates much more deeply if the NZD does not fall.  The central bank has reiterated that a lower exchange rate is not just desired but “needed”.  It is heading down a path of much tougher macroprudential measures and its banks are more than willing to comply by tightening lending standards, increasing scope for the RBNZ to cut much more deeply in pursuit of a weaker exchange rate.  Australia is also seeing tightening bank credit for housing and its housing market slowing.  As such the RBA too many consider cutting rates to prevent appreciation of the AUD, although it is much less strident than the RBNZ in calling for a weaker exchange rate.  We may finally be near the juncture where AUD/NZD is ready to make its much anticipated recovery.</em></p>

The NZD rallied sharply in an extraordinary reaction to a rate cut on Thursday.  Even though the cut was fully anticipated, I cannot recall such a powerful perverse response to an RBNZ rate decision.  It illustrates the lower liquidity in FX markets in recent years around key events as banks and the wider market rely heavily on electronic platforms and bank trading desks recoil from taking risk.  It also reflected the global scramble for diminishing yield, pent-up demand for emerging markets and a degree of capitulation in USD long positions, many of which may have been established after the rebound in US payrolls data.  I have read some analysis that the RBNZ made a so-called hawkish rate cut.  However, this is far from the case.  They have projected one and more likely two more 25bp rate cuts by mid-2017.  While some may say this is not enough to weaken the NZD, it fails to recognize that the RBNZ has based this projection on a steady decline in the NZD exchange rate.  Its alternative scenario is that it cuts much deeper by more than 1 percentage point to a low in rates near 0.75% if the exchange rate remains unchanged.  It has clearly linked its rates outlook with the exchange rate and suggests that it will cut rates much more deeply if the NZD does not fall.  The central bank has reiterated that a lower exchange rate is not just desired but “needed”.  It is heading down a path of much tougher macroprudential measures and its banks are more than willing to comply by tightening lending standards, increasing scope for the RBNZ to cut much more deeply in pursuit of a weaker exchange rate.  Australia is also seeing tightening bank credit for housing and its housing market slowing.  As such the RBA too many consider cutting rates to prevent appreciation of the AUD, although it is much less strident than the RBNZ in calling for a weaker exchange rate.  We may finally be near the juncture where AUD/NZD is ready to make its much anticipated recovery.

AmpGFX - RBNZ Antes-Up in the Currency Wars, NZD Risk to Downside