FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>We expect the RBA to cut this week, but are not convinced and agree with the 60% chance of 25bp cut priced into the market.  A cut this week is consistent with the policy prescription set out in the RBA Statement on Monetary Policy in May when the RBA cuts rates for the first time this year to address its low inflation outlook.  We are now three months on, past the election, and on the eve of the RBA’s next forecasting round.  It more-or-less predicted that it would cut again by now in May and not enough has changed to suggest it should hold back.  The outlook for inflation remains low for the next few years.  However, the RBA may feel less compelled to act with global inflation trends low and doubts that a rate cut now will do much good anyway.  The domestic economy is tracking close to trend at this time with some positive evidence in business surveys. Given the risks to the outlook the RBA may think it best to keep its limited space to ease conventional policy up its sleeve for now.  On the other hand, not cutting is likely to generate uncomfortable gains the AUD given the lackluster performance of the USD over the last week, further undermining the inflation outlook.</em></p>

We expect the RBA to cut this week, but are not convinced and agree with the 60% chance of 25bp cut priced into the market.  A cut this week is consistent with the policy prescription set out in the RBA Statement on Monetary Policy in May when the RBA cuts rates for the first time this year to address its low inflation outlook.  We are now three months on, past the election, and on the eve of the RBA’s next forecasting round.  It more-or-less predicted that it would cut again by now in May and not enough has changed to suggest it should hold back.  The outlook for inflation remains low for the next few years.  However, the RBA may feel less compelled to act with global inflation trends low and doubts that a rate cut now will do much good anyway.  The domestic economy is tracking close to trend at this time with some positive evidence in business surveys. Given the risks to the outlook the RBA may think it best to keep its limited space to ease conventional policy up its sleeve for now.  On the other hand, not cutting is likely to generate uncomfortable gains the AUD given the lackluster performance of the USD over the last week, further undermining the inflation outlook.

AUD

AmpGFX - RBA May Cut Reluctantly