FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

<p><em>The non-policy decision by the BoJ, creates considerably uncertainty over when the BoJ will consider easing policy further.  Kuroda suggests he simply needs more time to assess the effects of NIRP, in the order of six months or more, which pushes action out until at least late-July.  It seems he and other policymakers are willing to live with a stronger JPY and a lull in economic conditions over coming months.  In consideration of the rising trend in JPY this year, the risk is high that it continues to rally sufficiently to put pressure on the BoJ and government to act, and this may be closer to a USD/JPY level near 100.  A stronger JPY has tended to spill over to a weaker USD more generally in the immediate wake of the non-policy easing.  However, the sharp rise in JPY in early-February tended to add to global risk aversion and delayed the recovery in emerging market assets and currencies.  Perhaps this time the shock value of a stronger JPY is less, and commodity markets are on a firmer footing, such that a stronger JPY may not dampen risk appetite as much.  Nevertheless, the tendency for JPY to rally is likely to accentuate other possible global disturbances to risky assets, such as renewed concerns over China or Brexit vote.  As such we might expect non-dollar risk havens, such as gold, to remain underpinned with upside risk.</em></p>

The non-policy decision by the BoJ, creates considerably uncertainty over when the BoJ will consider easing policy further.  Kuroda suggests he simply needs more time to assess the effects of NIRP, in the order of six months or more, which pushes action out until at least late-July.  It seems he and other policymakers are willing to live with a stronger JPY and a lull in economic conditions over coming months.  In consideration of the rising trend in JPY this year, the risk is high that it continues to rally sufficiently to put pressure on the BoJ and government to act, and this may be closer to a USD/JPY level near 100.  A stronger JPY has tended to spill over to a weaker USD more generally in the immediate wake of the non-policy easing.  However, the sharp rise in JPY in early-February tended to add to global risk aversion and delayed the recovery in emerging market assets and currencies.  Perhaps this time the shock value of a stronger JPY is less, and commodity markets are on a firmer footing, such that a stronger JPY may not dampen risk appetite as much.  Nevertheless, the tendency for JPY to rally is likely to accentuate other possible global disturbances to risky assets, such as renewed concerns over China or Brexit vote.  As such we might expect non-dollar risk havens, such as gold, to remain underpinned with upside risk.

Listed Index Fund JPX-Nikkei Index 400 (1592 JP)

AmpGFX - Lack of BoJ Action to Support JPY and Other Non-Dollar Risk Havens like Gold