FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The speech by BoJ Governor Kuroda indicated that the Bank will stick to a 2% inflation objective and aim to achieve it at the “earliest possible time”. And also assured us that the “level” of monetary policy accommodation will not be reduced.  However, the speech suggested that the Bank would consider changing the mix of policy (perhaps lowering to NIRP further while reducing the amount or maturity profile of asset purchases). Kuroda continued to argue that there was ample scope to further ease policy across all dimensions of quality, quantity and negative interest rates.  However, the issue is not about limits to policy but the costs and benefits of these measures.  Kuroda admits there are costs of maintaining the current policy stance and extending it further and this must be weighed against the benefits.  Nevertheless, he strongly suggested that the benefits at least outweigh the costs of existing policy.  The speech highlighted costs associated with the flatness of the yield curve suggesting the bank would look at ways of mitigating these costs. The speech did not suggest that the BoJ needs to significantly increase overall policy easing measures.  Kuroda sees the economy close to full employment and the adaptive nature of Japan’s inflation expectations suggests that they should rise as the oil price effect on inflation dissipates.  As such there is no sense of urgency to further boost easing, only to maintain a strong commitment to the 2% inflation target at the earliest possible time. Noticeably absent was any reference the JPY exchange rate and the dampening impact its strength has had on inflation or the effectiveness of monetary policy.  This suggests that the topic of intervention is too politically sensitive and any policy of buying foreign bonds is off-limits.  Furthermore, Kuroda dismissed the possibility of helicopter money policy as essentially illegal and undesirable. The speech provides little impetus to weaken the JPY.  However, it does leave the door open for a modest further reduction in interest rates, which combined with a somewhat higher outlook for US rates and a more balanced positioning after the steep rise in JPY this year, may help stabilize the JPY exchange rate and weaken it modestly.  The Japanese yield curve has already steepened over the last month or so since the 29 July policy meeting, and this speech gives some additional support for this trend.

The speech by BoJ Governor Kuroda indicated that the Bank will stick to a 2% inflation objective and aim to achieve it at the “earliest possible time”. And also assured us that the “level” of monetary policy accommodation will not be reduced.  However, the speech suggested that the Bank would consider changing the mix of policy (perhaps lowering to NIRP further while reducing the amount or maturity profile of asset purchases). Kuroda continued to argue that there was ample scope to further ease policy across all dimensions of quality, quantity and negative interest rates.  However, the issue is not about limits to policy but the costs and benefits of these measures.  Kuroda admits there are costs of maintaining the current policy stance and extending it further and this must be weighed against the benefits.  Nevertheless, he strongly suggested that the benefits at least outweigh the costs of existing policy.  The speech highlighted costs associated with the flatness of the yield curve suggesting the bank would look at ways of mitigating these costs. The speech did not suggest that the BoJ needs to significantly increase overall policy easing measures.  Kuroda sees the economy close to full employment and the adaptive nature of Japan’s inflation expectations suggests that they should rise as the oil price effect on inflation dissipates.  As such there is no sense of urgency to further boost easing, only to maintain a strong commitment to the 2% inflation target at the earliest possible time. Noticeably absent was any reference the JPY exchange rate and the dampening impact its strength has had on inflation or the effectiveness of monetary policy.  This suggests that the topic of intervention is too politically sensitive and any policy of buying foreign bonds is off-limits.  Furthermore, Kuroda dismissed the possibility of helicopter money policy as essentially illegal and undesirable. The speech provides little impetus to weaken the JPY.  However, it does leave the door open for a modest further reduction in interest rates, which combined with a somewhat higher outlook for US rates and a more balanced positioning after the steep rise in JPY this year, may help stabilize the JPY exchange rate and weaken it modestly.  The Japanese yield curve has already steepened over the last month or so since the 29 July policy meeting, and this speech gives some additional support for this trend.

AmpGFX - Kuroda's Ground Rules for Policy Discussion