FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Policy inertia at the major central banks may be contributing to a low degree of commitment in FX and rates markets leaving them subject to flights of fancy of short-term speculators. The greatest uncertainty appears to relate to Japanese financial markets and intentions of Japanese policymakers.  While there has been much discussion in the market over the timing of Fed policy hikes contributing to volatility, the odd angry swing in the JPY appears to be setting the tone in FX markets and to some extent rates and equities.  On Thursday, after the ECB displayed its inertia, an initial rise in EUR was wiped out by a sharp rise in USD/JPY reversing part of its equally confusing sharp fall earlier this week.  The rebounding USD/JPY spilled over to a broader rally in the USD and some risk aversion and correction in equities and commodity currencies.  Oil shot higher after US inventories fell on what appeared largely related to US storms rather than any fundamental shift.  This also contributed to some broader risk aversion and emphasized the skittishness in the market.  The BoJ policy meeting on 21 September may help resolve uncertain and trendless asset markets.  Recent speeches by BoJ Governor Kuroda and his deputy Nakaso suggest that the BoJ is looking to reset policy to make it more sustainable for a long haul battle to lift inflation, insistent that they will not reduce the “level” of easing.  This appears to mean raising longer-term yields to take the pressure off financial institutions’ profits and a deeper NIRP to lower short-term yields and even out the overall impact on the yield curve. A reverse of the Fed’s 2011/12 operation twist.  The Japanese rates market appears less convinced that short-term rates will fall, with yields overall higher since the 29 July BoJ policy meeting.  As such a deeper NIRP may still be seen as a shock to a skittish market.  This may end up being negative for JPY and spark a rally in the USD, but you couldn’t bet the house on it given the way JPY has traded this year.

Policy inertia at the major central banks may be contributing to a low degree of commitment in FX and rates markets leaving them subject to flights of fancy of short-term speculators. The greatest uncertainty appears to relate to Japanese financial markets and intentions of Japanese policymakers.  While there has been much discussion in the market over the timing of Fed policy hikes contributing to volatility, the odd angry swing in the JPY appears to be setting the tone in FX markets and to some extent rates and equities.  On Thursday, after the ECB displayed its inertia, an initial rise in EUR was wiped out by a sharp rise in USD/JPY reversing part of its equally confusing sharp fall earlier this week.  The rebounding USD/JPY spilled over to a broader rally in the USD and some risk aversion and correction in equities and commodity currencies.  Oil shot higher after US inventories fell on what appeared largely related to US storms rather than any fundamental shift.  This also contributed to some broader risk aversion and emphasized the skittishness in the market.  The BoJ policy meeting on 21 September may help resolve uncertain and trendless asset markets.  Recent speeches by BoJ Governor Kuroda and his deputy Nakaso suggest that the BoJ is looking to reset policy to make it more sustainable for a long haul battle to lift inflation, insistent that they will not reduce the “level” of easing.  This appears to mean raising longer-term yields to take the pressure off financial institutions’ profits and a deeper NIRP to lower short-term yields and even out the overall impact on the yield curve. A reverse of the Fed’s 2011/12 operation twist.  The Japanese rates market appears less convinced that short-term rates will fall, with yields overall higher since the 29 July BoJ policy meeting.  As such a deeper NIRP may still be seen as a shock to a skittish market.  This may end up being negative for JPY and spark a rally in the USD, but you couldn’t bet the house on it given the way JPY has traded this year.

AmpGFX - ECB and BoJ Buckle in for the Long Haul