FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The BoJ appears to be massaging market expectations towards expecting a policy announcement on 21 September designed to lower short-term yields and raise long-term yields in Japan (‘operation reverse twist’).  This could be achieved by lowering the NIRP and adjusting the JGB purchase program to buy less long-term bonds.  Recent speeches by BoJ Governor Kuroda and Deputy Nakaso provided the rationale for the twist, and press reports today channeling BoJ insiders more pointedly suggest this will be the result.  We see the recent rise in global bond yields that continued Tuesday despite a much more dovish than expected speech by Fed Governor Brainard on Monday, as driven by this evidence of a BoJ twist.  However, surveys and market commentary by Japanese analysts suggest that sentiment remains divided.  The market overall still seems to somewhat favor a stronger JPY, retaining its year-long rising trend.  USD/JPY is trading in the middle of a wide but narrowing range.  We see risk to the upside in USD/JPY in response to a BoJ twist, potentially breaking the pair out of its downtrend this year. Higher long-term Japanese yields would be reinforced by a weaker JPY and potentially drive global yields much higher.  Higher global bond yields are spilling over to a correction in global asset prices and weaker emerging market and commodity currencies.  Traditionally, weak global asset prices tend to support JPY (seen as a safe haven).  However, the USD has been the preferred funding currency for higher risk investment this year.  As such, just as it is unusual to see bond and equity prices fall at the same time, we may see the JPY join the fall, and a broad rebound in the USD, regardless of if the Fed hikes rates in coming months or not.

The BoJ appears to be massaging market expectations towards expecting a policy announcement on 21 September designed to lower short-term yields and raise long-term yields in Japan (‘operation reverse twist’).  This could be achieved by lowering the NIRP and adjusting the JGB purchase program to buy less long-term bonds.  Recent speeches by BoJ Governor Kuroda and Deputy Nakaso provided the rationale for the twist, and press reports today channeling BoJ insiders more pointedly suggest this will be the result.  We see the recent rise in global bond yields that continued Tuesday despite a much more dovish than expected speech by Fed Governor Brainard on Monday, as driven by this evidence of a BoJ twist.  However, surveys and market commentary by Japanese analysts suggest that sentiment remains divided.  The market overall still seems to somewhat favor a stronger JPY, retaining its year-long rising trend.  USD/JPY is trading in the middle of a wide but narrowing range.  We see risk to the upside in USD/JPY in response to a BoJ twist, potentially breaking the pair out of its downtrend this year. Higher long-term Japanese yields would be reinforced by a weaker JPY and potentially drive global yields much higher.  Higher global bond yields are spilling over to a correction in global asset prices and weaker emerging market and commodity currencies.  Traditionally, weak global asset prices tend to support JPY (seen as a safe haven).  However, the USD has been the preferred funding currency for higher risk investment this year.  As such, just as it is unusual to see bond and equity prices fall at the same time, we may see the JPY join the fall, and a broad rebound in the USD, regardless of if the Fed hikes rates in coming months or not.

AmpGFX - BoJ Twist May Wind Equities, Bonds and JPY in a Declining Trio