FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>The BoJ policy adjustments, while relatively subtle at this time, have afforded it more flexibility and sustainability that should help boost confidence and address key concerns that it had run out of scope to adjust policy and may be forced to reduce policy accommodation.  It helps restore confidence that the BoJ can sustain and enhance policy easing to achieve its inflation goal.  It further provides guidance that it will persist with policy accommodation until it overshoots its target.  It has set in place a slightly positive yield curve that helps underpin financial sector profitability.  The combination of these factors might be expected to lift economic confidence and inflation expectations in Japan, in turn stabilizing the JPY and potentially in time reversing some of the strength in the JPY this year.  The lack of bounce so far in USD/JPY may reflect the proximity of financial half year end in Japan, generating near term demand for the currency.  It also reflects disappointment that the BoJ didn’t immediately cut its cash rate target, and set only a very gradual slope for the yield curve of around 1bp per year.  It also retained its quantity targets for JGB purchases and money base, dampening the sense that it believes in yield control, and perpetuating a sense of inertia in policy.  The FOMC contributed to a weaker USD by lowering its long run GDP potential growth rate and long term neutral interest rate forecasts, maintaining a weak outlook for growth over the next three years and a slow return to 2% inflation.  Even though it appears eager to hike once this year, the long delays in delivering hikes and lower path of hike projections continued. </em></p>

The BoJ policy adjustments, while relatively subtle at this time, have afforded it more flexibility and sustainability that should help boost confidence and address key concerns that it had run out of scope to adjust policy and may be forced to reduce policy accommodation.  It helps restore confidence that the BoJ can sustain and enhance policy easing to achieve its inflation goal.  It further provides guidance that it will persist with policy accommodation until it overshoots its target.  It has set in place a slightly positive yield curve that helps underpin financial sector profitability.  The combination of these factors might be expected to lift economic confidence and inflation expectations in Japan, in turn stabilizing the JPY and potentially in time reversing some of the strength in the JPY this year.  The lack of bounce so far in USD/JPY may reflect the proximity of financial half year end in Japan, generating near term demand for the currency.  It also reflects disappointment that the BoJ didn’t immediately cut its cash rate target, and set only a very gradual slope for the yield curve of around 1bp per year.  It also retained its quantity targets for JGB purchases and money base, dampening the sense that it believes in yield control, and perpetuating a sense of inertia in policy.  The FOMC contributed to a weaker USD by lowering its long run GDP potential growth rate and long term neutral interest rate forecasts, maintaining a weak outlook for growth over the next three years and a slow return to 2% inflation.  Even though it appears eager to hike once this year, the long delays in delivering hikes and lower path of hike projections continued. 

JPY

AmpGFX - BoJ Policy Reboot or Tweak?