Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven, SC Capital

SC Capital

SC Capital has over 20 years' experience covering the global automotive industry both on the Sell Side (UBS & Morgan Stanley) and Buy Side (Och-Ziff), along with a wealth of industry contacts. 

Current focus is on electric vehicle stocks & their supply chains. Aim is to identify the winners and losers from a long/short perspective. This includes close coverage of legacy automakers as well.  

From time to time. we cover opportunistic events with stocks in the manufacturing sector, food & beverage, healthcare and tech, where we also have coverage experience.

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Nippon Suisan (1332)--The Biggest Event in Japan's Food & Beverage Sector Comes Within 4 Weeks

Amarin--2019's Biggest Buyout Target for Big Pharma

Nippon Suisan (1332)--Stalled EPA Sales to Amarin

Nippon Suisan--Amarin Reports 25% Risk Reduction in Clinical Trial, Better than Lipitor Results

Over 22 years covering Japanese equities on both the sell side and the buy side. 

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Amarin Corporation Plc / Equity Bottom-Up

Q4 2018 Revenues Stronger Than Pre-Announcement on January 4th: Amarin released its Q4 2018 results today and held a conference call. Results of $77m in sales (+44% YoY), were stronger than the January 4th pre-announced range of $72m and $76m.  2019 revenue guidance of 50% growth to $350m was left unchanged, but management sounded very confident on the conference call (see details below). Q1 2019 Revenue Growth Appears Stronger than Expected: On the conference call, Amarin was asked whether Q1 revenues were tracking the prescription data, which indicates +50% YoY growth so far. Management said that sales looked about the same, despite revenues tending not to track prescriptions that closely in Q1 normally.   FDA May Fast-Track Vascepa Label Expansion: While Amarin's CEO, John Thero, is usually very conservative with guidance, today he explored the possibilities of fast-track treatment by the FDA for Vascepa's label expansion for the first time. Amarin is still on course to file for this with the FDA by March-end. Fast-track treatment by the FDA would speed up the approval process to 6 months, versus 10 months, and if favorable, could have significant upside impact on 2019 revenues. Approval for Vascepa in Europe to be Sought This Year: Amarin disclosed for the first time that it would seek approval for Vascepa in Europe this year. This is highly significant because the cardiovascular disease (CVD) patient population is 22% higher than the US. Amarin confirmed that FDA approval for label expansion would speed up the approval process in Europe. Next Catalyst is the ACC Conference on March 18th: Amarin will be announcing "late-breaking" data from the Reduce-It clinical trial at the American College of Cardiology on March 18th. Because the Reduce-It trial results themselves were so powerful, we expect the ACC event to be of high interest among CVD specialists and investors. Amarin Remains an Attractive Take-Over Candidate: Given the high efficacy of Vascepa in the treatment of CVD patients, Amarin continues to be one of the most highly attractive take-over candidates in the pharmaceutical world. Management's confidence on today's call appears to be linked to a stronger than expected response to Vascepa among doctors since its block-buster trial results were announced last September. For details about our outlook on Amarin, please refer to our deep-dive report published last month: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amarin-2019-s-biggest-buyout-target-for-big-pharma" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26472">Amarin--2019's Biggest Buyout Target for Big Pharma</a>

Q4 2018 Revenues Stronger Than Pre-Announcement on January 4th: Amarin released its Q4 2018 results today and held a conference call. Results of $77m in sales (+44% YoY), were stronger than the January 4th pre-announced range of $72m and $76m.  2019 revenue guidance of 50% growth to $350m was left unchanged, but management sounded very confident on the conference call (see details below). Q1 2019 Revenue Growth Appears Stronger than Expected: On the conference call, Amarin was asked whether Q1 revenues were tracking the prescription data, which indicates +50% YoY growth so far. Management said that sales looked about the same, despite revenues tending not to track prescriptions that closely in Q1 normally.   FDA May Fast-Track Vascepa Label Expansion: While Amarin's CEO, John Thero, is usually very conservative with guidance, today he explored the possibilities of fast-track treatment by the FDA for Vascepa's label expansion for the first time. Amarin is still on course to file for this with the FDA by March-end. Fast-track treatment by the FDA would speed up the approval process to 6 months, versus 10 months, and if favorable, could have significant upside impact on 2019 revenues. Approval for Vascepa in Europe to be Sought This Year: Amarin disclosed for the first time that it would seek approval for Vascepa in Europe this year. This is highly significant because the cardiovascular disease (CVD) patient population is 22% higher than the US. Amarin confirmed that FDA approval for label expansion would speed up the approval process in Europe. Next Catalyst is the ACC Conference on March 18th: Amarin will be announcing "late-breaking" data from the Reduce-It clinical trial at the American College of Cardiology on March 18th. Because the Reduce-It trial results themselves were so powerful, we expect the ACC event to be of high interest among CVD specialists and investors. Amarin Remains an Attractive Take-Over Candidate: Given the high efficacy of Vascepa in the treatment of CVD patients, Amarin continues to be one of the most highly attractive take-over candidates in the pharmaceutical world. Management's confidence on today's call appears to be linked to a stronger than expected response to Vascepa among doctors since its block-buster trial results were announced last September. For details about our outlook on Amarin, please refer to our deep-dive report published last month: Amarin--2019's Biggest Buyout Target for Big Pharma

Amarin Q4 2018 Conference Call--Strong Sales & High Confidence