European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Defined downside: OPAP trades ~2% below its €19.04 exit anchor, with a 5% cap limiting redemption but offering a clear floor for risk-arbitrage positioning.</li>
<li>Catalyst carry: €0.50 dividend in November plus €0.80 post-close yield 6–7% carry into H1 2026 completion, reinforcing positive IRR on a short-duration special situation.</li>
<li>Governance overlay: KKCG’s 85% voting control speeds execution and capital access but embeds a governance discount; key to watch: listing venue, board independence, and dividend discipline.</li>
</ul>


Defined downside: OPAP trades ~2% below its €19.04 exit anchor, with a 5% cap limiting redemption but offering a clear floor for risk-arbitrage positioning.
Catalyst carry: €0.50 dividend in November plus €0.80 post-close yield 6–7% carry into H1 2026 completion, reinforcing positive IRR on a short-duration special situation.
Governance overlay: KKCG’s 85% voting control speeds execution and capital access but embeds a governance discount; key to watch: listing venue, board independence, and dividend discipline.


Allwyn–OPAP: Building a Lottery Powerhouse, Creating a Complex Arb

OPAP SA

Allwyn–OPAP: Building a Lottery Powerhouse, Creating a Complex Arb