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Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our FY24 to March 2024 EBIT forecast for ANA of ¥ 196bn is considerably higher than company guidance of ¥ 140bn, supported by our analysis of historical earnings seasonality.</li>
<li>However, we are only narrowly above consensus of ¥186bn, and narrowly below consensus of ¥204bn, ¥208bn in FY25, FY26.</li>
<li>In contrast, we see considerably greater upside to expectations at JAL, where our FY24 EBIT is 27% above consensus.</li>
</ul>


Our FY24 to March 2024 EBIT forecast for ANA of ¥ 196bn is considerably higher than company guidance of ¥ 140bn, supported by our analysis of historical earnings seasonality.
However, we are only narrowly above consensus of ¥186bn, and narrowly below consensus of ¥204bn, ¥208bn in FY25, FY26.
In contrast, we see considerably greater upside to expectations at JAL, where our FY24 EBIT is 27% above consensus.


All Nippon Airways: Difficult to Outperform Expectations - In Contrast to JAL

Ana Holdings

All Nippon Airways: Difficult to Outperform Expectations - In Contrast to JAL