Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

A veteran with 19-year experience in equity research.

Geographical coverage:
* Companies operating in China, but listed in Hong Kong and the U.S.
* Previously China A-share (listed in mainland China).

Equity sector coverage:
* Chinese App / Internet-based consumption in China, e.g., Alibaba, Tencent, etc.
* Previously covered education, transportation, telecom, power, bank, advertisement, hotel, etc.

Research methods:
* Generally bottom-up.
* Talk to related people on the ground.  Talk to readers and independent writers for analyzing a news portal.  Talk to parents and teachers for analyzing a tutoring school. 
* Visit stores and show photos as evidence in notes.
* Do technical analysis when finding a short-seller attacking an equity.

Languages:
* English
* Mandarin Chinese (Official language of China)
* Shanghainese (Language of Shanghai, the most developed city in China)
* Cantonese (Language of Hong Kong and Canton Province, one of the most developed provinces in China)

Overseas Chinese Equities

Alibaba (BABA): One More Factor Squeezing Margin in 2Q21 Than Expected

China Internet Weekly (9Nov2020): New Law on Online Small Amount Lending

China Internet Weekly (26Oct2020): BABA Bought Sun Art, Foxconn Sold BABA

Alibaba (BABA): Weakening Delivery Service, a Disadvantage Compared to JD.com

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>Online sales were still strong in China in the quarter ended September; therefore, we believe BABA’s revenue can still grow rapidly in 2Q21.</li>
<li>The extraordinarily high “interest and investment income, net” in FY2020 will not happen again; therefore, we believe EPS will decrease by 10% in FY2021.</li>
<li>The stock price has risen 44% year to date, compared to 1% for the Standard and Poor 500 Index.</li>
<li>The P/E band since IPO suggests a downside of 17% and a price target of US$252.</li>
</ul>


Online sales were still strong in China in the quarter ended September; therefore, we believe BABA’s revenue can still grow rapidly in 2Q21.
The extraordinarily high “interest and investment income, net” in FY2020 will not happen again; therefore, we believe EPS will decrease by 10% in FY2021.
The stock price has risen 44% year to date, compared to 1% for the Standard and Poor 500 Index.
The P/E band since IPO suggests a downside of 17% and a price target of US$252.


Alibaba (BABA): Expect Higher Financials for F2Q21, But Lower Price