Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

High Yield Experts

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

Credit

In our view, Alam Sutera’s FY 2018 results were soft but acceptable, especially considering the challenging real estate environment in Indonesia. The highlight was that marketing sales which almost doubled. Cash flows were weak and the financial risk profile deteriorated slightly, but we anticipate improvement in FY 2019. Marketing sales tend to be the leading indicator for a real estate company. ASRI's 2018 marketing sales were solid, beating both the company's guidance and most expectations, especially against the backdrop of a challenging operating environment. While it is difficult to forecast 2019 performance in view of the Indonesian presidential election, we still believe ASRI will continue to outperform peers, supported by the partnership with CFLD. In FY 2019, we expect revenue growth of 10% albeit with a lower profit margin, due to the product mix shifting away from high-margin land-lot sales. Debt should remain stable, as cash flows should suffice to fund operations and capex. Therefore, we foresee improvement in the credit profile. We expect the financial risk profile to improve slightly y-o-y. Our fundamental Credit Bias on ASRI remains "Stable", given the decent operational performance and stable financial profile (supported by the land bank) amid a weak real estate market. The CFLD partnership, with its contractual annual land sales, should support the credit. We are less concerned than the agencies on refinancing risk, as real estate companies with large land banks tend to have decent sources of funding if the need arises. We recommend a “Speculative Buy” on the ASRIIJ ’21s and ‘22s, which are both trading wider than peers such as MDLNIJ, KIJAIJ and LPKRIJ. The ‘20s will mature in a year and are trading tight. We like the credit, as the company's financial risk profile is stable even amid the weak operating environment.

   In our view, Alam Sutera’s FY 2018 results were soft but acceptable, especially considering the challenging real estate environment in Indonesia. The highlight was that marketing sales which almost doubled. Cash flows were weak and the financial risk profile deteriorated slightly, but we anticipate improvement in FY 2019.    Marketing sales tend to be the leading indicator for a real estate company. ASRI's 2018 marketing sales were solid, beating both the company's guidance and most expectations, especially against the backdrop of a challenging operating environment. While it is difficult to forecast 2019 performance in view of the Indonesian presidential election, we still believe ASRI will continue to outperform peers, supported by the partnership with CFLD.    In FY 2019, we expect revenue growth of 10% albeit with a lower profit margin, due to the product mix shifting away from high-margin land-lot sales. Debt should remain stable, as cash flows should suffice to fund operations and capex. Therefore, we foresee improvement in the credit profile. We expect the financial risk profile to improve slightly y-o-y.    Our fundamental Credit Bias on ASRI remains "Stable", given the decent operational performance and stable financial profile (supported by the land bank) amid a weak real estate market. The CFLD partnership, with its contractual annual land sales, should support the credit. We are less concerned than the agencies on refinancing risk, as real estate companies with large land banks tend to have decent sources of funding if the need arises.    We recommend a “Speculative Buy” on the ASRIIJ ’21s and ‘22s, which are both trading wider than peers such as MDLNIJ, KIJAIJ and LPKRIJ. The ‘20s will mature in a year and are trading tight. We like the credit, as the company's financial risk profile is stable even amid the weak operating environment. 

Alam Sutera - Earnings Flash - FY 2018 Results - Lucror Analytics

Alam Sutera Realty

Alam Sutera - Earnings Flash - FY 2018 Results - Lucror Analytics