Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

A Long & Short Investment Ideas generator for Asian Equities with 10 years experience in a Hedge fund focused on bottom-up ideas, searching out mispriced ideas and misunderstood investment thesis. Provides on-the-ground insights in various Asian markets with a sway towards ASEAN. Experienced and survived the Asian Financial Crisis in a family business, as well as the Global Financial Crisis in financial markets where lessons learned. It's all about understanding business drivers and navigating business cycles, which has high applicability in generating investment ideas. 

Investment horizon: Mid to Long term

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

Airports of Thailand 60 Macro Pivot Support

Airports of Thailand (AOT): Fallen Enough?

AOT (AOT TB): Monopoly to Gain from Chinese Tourist Recovery

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-airways-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18317:1" rel="noopener">Thai Airways International (THAI TB)</a>  now requires passengers departing from China, Italy and South Korea to present health certificates before they are issued boarding passes.</div>
<div>In compliance with an instruction from the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand, THAI Airway staff would issue boarding passes only to passengers with certificates. </div>
<div>An excerpt from the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand on 25th February 2020 mentioned that air operators operating flights from the port of embarkation in countries or regions indicated in point 1 shall perform primary exit screening by observing general conditions of the passengers at the airport of embarkation. If any passengers are found with the signs of acute respiratory infections such as <em>fever, cough, sore throat, runny nose or dyspnea</em>, the air operator shall notify the <strong>doctor</strong> or <strong>public health officer</strong> at such port <strong>immediately</strong>. If any risk factor is found from the diagnosis, <strong>boarding pass shall not be issued</strong> to such passengers.</div>
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<div>Recent announcements such as Thai immigration officers caught COVID-19 and temporary suspension on visa issuance have added salt to the wound. Yet, AOT is still trading at a premium to its tourism-related Thai peers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minor-international-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2154:1" rel="noopener">Minor International (MINT TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erawan-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11290:1" rel="noopener">Erawan Group (ERW TB)</a>.  With 44% fewer tourists in February 2020 YoY, the company's earnings outlook for the year will be significantly bearish therefore the <strong>reward for shorting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports Of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> remains highly attractive.</strong>
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Thai Airways International (THAI TB)  now requires passengers departing from China, Italy and South Korea to present health certificates before they are issued boarding passes.
In compliance with an instruction from the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand, THAI Airway staff would issue boarding passes only to passengers with certificates. 
An excerpt from the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand on 25th February 2020 mentioned that air operators operating flights from the port of embarkation in countries or regions indicated in point 1 shall perform primary exit screening by observing general conditions of the passengers at the airport of embarkation. If any passengers are found with the signs of acute respiratory infections such as fever, cough, sore throat, runny nose or dyspnea, the air operator shall notify the doctor or public health officer at such port immediately. If any risk factor is found from the diagnosis, boarding pass shall not be issued to such passengers.

Recent announcements such as Thai immigration officers caught COVID-19 and temporary suspension on visa issuance have added salt to the wound. Yet, AOT is still trading at a premium to its tourism-related Thai peers such as Minor International (MINT TB) and Erawan Group (ERW TB).  With 44% fewer tourists in February 2020 YoY, the company's earnings outlook for the year will be significantly bearish therefore the reward for shorting Airports Of Thailand (AOT TB) remains highly attractive.


Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH)

Airport of Thailand (AOT): No Visa and Premium