New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

New zealand Health care / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Over the last six months the three aged care operators with March year ends are down a further ~-20%, with Ryman Healthcare (RYM) the worst performer.</li><li>Its market cap is now two thirds of what it was a decade ago, when it was about to report annuity earnings of NZ$59m, compared to the all-time high of NZ$187m we expect it to report for FY24.</li><li>It is easy to look at the share prices and conclude that it is all doom and gloom in aged care land, but we disagree. (1) Care profits are depressed but margins are improving for the first time in a decade, the glass half full approach would suggest we should pay a higher multiple for depressed but recovering earnings. </li></ul>

Over the last six months the three aged care operators with March year ends are down a further ~-20%, with Ryman Healthcare (RYM) the worst performer.Its market cap is now two thirds of what it was a decade ago, when it was about to report annuity earnings of NZ$59m, compared to the all-time high of NZ$187m we expect it to report for FY24.It is easy to look at the share prices and conclude that it is all doom and gloom in aged care land, but we disagree. (1) Care profits are depressed but margins are improving for the first time in a decade, the glass half full approach would suggest we should pay a higher multiple for depressed but recovering earnings. 

Aged Care Sector - More Sellers than Buyers