EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It has been an eventful few days for those involved with Turkey as a coup was foiled and the clean-up has begun in earnest.The situation, as is the norm in the region, appears to be hideously complex with various factions vying for control in Turkey and the instigators of the putsch potentially anyone from the rapidly marginalised secularist establishment to another Islamic group with whom the AKP had been formally allied.This note attempts to untangle some of these complexities in a concise manner and consider what the impact of these events is likely to be on Turkey going forward, both in terms of the politics, which now seems to be headed fully toward an illiberal democracy and in terms of the market, which fell over 7% back to the level of two weeks ago before its post-Brexit rally.

It has been an eventful few days for those involved with Turkey as a coup was foiled and the clean-up has begun in earnest.The situation, as is the norm in the region, appears to be hideously complex with various factions vying for control in Turkey and the instigators of the putsch potentially anyone from the rapidly marginalised secularist establishment to another Islamic group with whom the AKP had been formally allied.This note attempts to untangle some of these complexities in a concise manner and consider what the impact of these events is likely to be on Turkey going forward, both in terms of the politics, which now seems to be headed fully toward an illiberal democracy and in terms of the market, which fell over 7% back to the level of two weeks ago before its post-Brexit rally.

After the Attemped Coup