AFT Pharmaceuticals - US milestone triggers upside and guidance bump

AFT Pharmaceuticals has announced the first sale of its intravenous pain relief medicine, Maxigesic IV, through its US licensing partner, Hikma Pharmaceuticals, a material milestone for AFT’s portfolio expansion and geographic diversification. The NZ$6m milestone payment triggered a bump in FY24 operating profit guidance to NZ$23–25m (from NZ$22–24m previously). The upside was partially offset by slower than anticipated sales traction in Australasia. We adjust our FY24 and FY25 estimates to reflect the update and revised guidance, including the earlier than anticipated milestone payment (pulled forward to FY24 from FY25) and increased anticipated expenses (SG&A and R&D) to align with management’s portfolio and geographic growth aspirations. Our valuation resets to NZ$698m or NZ$6.65/share (from NZ$723m or NZ$6.90/share).