Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Securities analyst covering electronics, precision equipment & robotics, engineering, construction, transport and other sectors for more than 25 years in Japan and 3 years in Korea. Permanent resident of Japan.

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Advantest: Strong SoC Tester Demand Drives 1Q Results but Sustainability Remains a Question

Advantest 2Q Results: Growth in 5G Related Demand for SoC Testers Drive Revenue and Margins

Advantest 3Q Results: Revises Full-Year Forecast Upwards Driven by Demand for Next-Gen Advanced SoCs

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Advantest reported a 24% QoQ increase in new orders received in 4Q of FY Mar-20 led by memory test systems, test services and M&amp;A. Orders for smartphone processor and high performance computing SoC test systems were also up.</li>
<li>But management is guiding for a 32% sequential decline in orders this quarter, more than erasing that gain. And visibility is so poor that no further guidance has been provided.</li>
<li>The shares have rebounded smartly over the past month, but further weakness cannot be ruled out. Consolidation seems likely.</li>
</ul>


Advantest reported a 24% QoQ increase in new orders received in 4Q of FY Mar-20 led by memory test systems, test services and M&amp;A. Orders for smartphone processor and high performance computing SoC test systems were also up.
But management is guiding for a 32% sequential decline in orders this quarter, more than erasing that gain. And visibility is so poor that no further guidance has been provided.
The shares have rebounded smartly over the past month, but further weakness cannot be ruled out. Consolidation seems likely.


Advantest (6857 JP): Strong 4Q Orders, Weak 1Q Guidance, No Further Visibility

Advantest Corp

Advantest (6857 JP): Strong 4Q Orders, Weak 1Q Guidance, No Further Visibility