Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Securities analyst covering electronics, precision equipment & robotics, engineering, construction, transport and other sectors for more than 25 years in Japan and 3 years in Korea. Permanent resident of Japan.

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Advantest (6857 JP): Sharp Increase in New Orders; Estimates & Price Target Raised

Advantest (6857 JP): Further Growth Ahead

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Advantest enters the new year with its share price back to its pre-Lehman Shock high, but lagging Tokyo Electron and other high-flying Japanese semiconductor production equipment (SPE) stocks.</p><p>But orders, sales and profits turned up in 2Q of FY Mar-21 and the medium-to-long-term outlook for both memory and system-on-chip (SoC) test requirements is favorable.</p><p>5G is likely to add about 10% to SoC test demand over the next 2-3 years. Smart-phone complexity, high-performance computing, data traffic, memory and storage requirements, and industrial applications are the underlying drivers of test system demand.</p><div><p>Sales should rise by about 25% and operating profit by nearly 40% in the two and a half years to Mar-23, in our estimation, with operating and net profits regaining and then exceeding the peaks recorded in FY Mar-19 despite substantial investments in new technology.</p></div><p>Valuations have risen, but not radically so, and Japan Analytics calculations indicate that the shares are nowhere near being oversold. SPE comparables suggest potential upside of 30% to ¥10,000-plus. </p><p>The primary threats to Advantest's prospects are macro-economic and political, in our opinion. Risk to the important China market should decline with the departure of Donald Trump. </p><div><div><div><div></div></div></div></div><div><div></div></div>

Advantest enters the new year with its share price back to its pre-Lehman Shock high, but lagging Tokyo Electron and other high-flying Japanese semiconductor production equipment (SPE) stocks.But orders, sales and profits turned up in 2Q of FY Mar-21 and the medium-to-long-term outlook for both memory and system-on-chip (SoC) test requirements is favorable.5G is likely to add about 10% to SoC test demand over the next 2-3 years. Smart-phone complexity, high-performance computing, data traffic, memory and storage requirements, and industrial applications are the underlying drivers of test system demand.Sales should rise by about 25% and operating profit by nearly 40% in the two and a half years to Mar-23, in our estimation, with operating and net profits regaining and then exceeding the peaks recorded in FY Mar-19 despite substantial investments in new technology.Valuations have risen, but not radically so, and Japan Analytics calculations indicate that the shares are nowhere near being oversold. SPE comparables suggest potential upside of 30% to ¥10,000-plus. The primary threats to Advantest's prospects are macro-economic and political, in our opinion. Risk to the important China market should decline with the departure of Donald Trump. 

Advantest (6857 JP): 5G Keeps the Ball Rolling

Advantest Corp

Advantest (6857 JP): 5G Keeps the Ball Rolling