Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Highly experienced ex-Delta One trader with 17 years of experience trading arbitrage and related strategies across Asian markets.

Exempt Financial Adviser (EFA) under CrossASEAN Research Pte Ltd.

It is important to note that the information provided by Periscope Analytics is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and synthesized from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions.

All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include, but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, ETF and other passive investment vehicle holdings, and free float and volume data from third-party data providers. Periscope Analytics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates and/or other information.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

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Event-Driven

Yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-sa" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:812:1">Total Sa (FP FP)</a> agreed to buy a 37.4% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-gas-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28352:1">Adani Gas Ltd (ADGAS IN)</a> at INR 149.63 per share. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-sa" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:812:1">Total Sa (FP FP)</a> will make an open offer for 25.2% from the public shareholders and will buy the balance from the promoters so that their stake is exactly 37.4% at the end of the share purchase agreement (SPA). Post the SPA, 37.4% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-gas-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28352:1">Adani Gas Ltd (ADGAS IN)</a> will be held by the Promoters, 37.4% by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-sa" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:812:1">Total Sa (FP FP)</a> and 25.2% by public shareholders.The open offer price represents premia of 8.70%, 10.22% and 0.96% to the undisturbed price,  the 1 month VWAP and the 3 month VWAP.Post the news, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-gas-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28352:1">Adani Gas Ltd (ADGAS IN)</a> traded to a high of INR 163 (a premium of 8.94% to the offer price) before closing the day at INR 150.30We do not see a high probability of a price bump given that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-sa" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:812:1">Total Sa (FP FP)</a> can buy the entire 37.4% stake from the promoters if the public do not tender their shares in the open offer.

Yesterday, Total Sa (FP FP) agreed to buy a 37.4% stake in Adani Gas Ltd (ADGAS IN) at INR 149.63 per share. Total Sa (FP FP) will make an open offer for 25.2% from the public shareholders and will buy the balance from the promoters so that their stake is exactly 37.4% at the end of the share purchase agreement (SPA). Post the SPA, 37.4% of Adani Gas Ltd (ADGAS IN) will be held by the Promoters, 37.4% by Total Sa (FP FP) and 25.2% by public shareholders.The open offer price represents premia of 8.70%, 10.22% and 0.96% to the undisturbed price,  the 1 month VWAP and the 3 month VWAP.Post the news, Adani Gas Ltd (ADGAS IN) traded to a high of INR 163 (a premium of 8.94% to the offer price) before closing the day at INR 150.30We do not see a high probability of a price bump given that Total Sa (FP FP) can buy the entire 37.4% stake from the promoters if the public do not tender their shares in the open offer.

Adani Total Gas

Adani Gas - Don't Bet on a Total Bump