Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Late in the evening on Sep 18th, after the trading world in Japan had gone home for the 5-day weekend, Osaka Steel (5449 JP) announced that it planned a tender offer to take over Tokyo Kohtetsu (5448 JP) at 630 yen - a nice 63% premium&nbsp;vs the close. &nbsp;Tokyo Kohtetsu came out with a statement in&nbsp;<a href="http://www.kohtetsu.jp/ir/library/pdf/2015/20150918-2.pdf" target="_blank">Japanese</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="http://www.kohtetsu.jp/ir/library/pdf/2015/20150918-3.pdf" target="_blank">English</a>&nbsp;at the same time, saying the board supported the deal.&nbsp;Tokyo Kohtetsu has gone limit up the last two days and is expected to open today.This is a tiny deal.&nbsp;It matters nothing in the grand scheme of things - in the sector or Japan as a whole.&nbsp;But&nbsp;for some it may be&nbsp;worth a look anyway.&nbsp;The backstory is interesting. And instructive. Especially for shareholders in situations where it is not too late.&nbsp;The backstory is separately discussed in the next Insight (Tokyo Kohtetsu II out later today) and if shareholders of Higashi Nippon Bank (and UNY, given the way the market is trading the UNY/FamilyMart ratio)&nbsp;are looking to understand their options in case they don't like the ratio they are given, they might spare the time to read it. Tilting at windmills has worked in the past.In any case, it is probably too late for this deal.&nbsp;There is not much&nbsp;which&nbsp;can&nbsp;or&nbsp;will&nbsp;block a successful change in control unless either of the two sellers who have undertaken to make this tender successful have a change of heart - which is unheard or in Japan.A look at the details&nbsp;below the fold...

Late in the evening on Sep 18th, after the trading world in Japan had gone home for the 5-day weekend, Osaka Steel (5449 JP) announced that it planned a tender offer to take over Tokyo Kohtetsu (5448 JP) at 630 yen - a nice 63% premium&nbsp;vs the close. &nbsp;Tokyo Kohtetsu came out with a statement in&nbsp;Japanese&nbsp;and&nbsp;English&nbsp;at the same time, saying the board supported the deal.&nbsp;Tokyo Kohtetsu has gone limit up the last two days and is expected to open today.This is a tiny deal.&nbsp;It matters nothing in the grand scheme of things - in the sector or Japan as a whole.&nbsp;But&nbsp;for some it may be&nbsp;worth a look anyway.&nbsp;The backstory is interesting. And instructive. Especially for shareholders in situations where it is not too late.&nbsp;The backstory is separately discussed in the next Insight (Tokyo Kohtetsu II out later today) and if shareholders of Higashi Nippon Bank (and UNY, given the way the market is trading the UNY/FamilyMart ratio)&nbsp;are looking to understand their options in case they don't like the ratio they are given, they might spare the time to read it. Tilting at windmills has worked in the past.In any case, it is probably too late for this deal.&nbsp;There is not much&nbsp;which&nbsp;can&nbsp;or&nbsp;will&nbsp;block a successful change in control unless either of the two sellers who have undertaken to make this tender successful have a change of heart - which is unheard or in Japan.A look at the details&nbsp;below the fold...

Tokyo Kohtetsu I:  Once More Unto the Breach? Nope - This one gets done