Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Supply Chain Crisis - Signs of Thawing Out?

Positive Correlation Between US Bond Yields and S&P500 Suggests Investors Do Not Expect Stagflation

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

The Great Moderation led investors to believe that stagflation had been confined to history, but higher inflation and slowing growth is stoking fears of an impending return. Unlike the 1970s stagflation, there has hitherto not been an outward shift in the Phillips Curve or an unhinging of inflationary expectations. Meanwhile, in contrast to the 1970s, there is no lack of supply in crude oil  to meet demand from the corporate and household sectors.
Due to legacies from the Great Depression, central banks arguably sowed the seeds for stagflation in the 1970s by prioritising full employment versus price stability in the preceding 25 years, but objectives changed towards controlling inflation after Paul Volcker took charge of the Fed in 1979. The global financial crisis has shifted central banks' policy focus back to full employment, thereby fuelling fears of a return to stagflation.
The price elasticity of demand for labour, particularly in the US, has risen since the 1970s as companies have focussed on maximising shareholder value, involving offshoring production and the deployment of labour-saving technology. Stagflation in the 1970s was partly attributable to slow capacity expansion and strong labour force growth that produced deteriorating  productivity, but slowing labour force growth force raises the ante on companies to invest in new capacity to counter a looming scarcity of workers.
Supply chain dislocations could persist in the short-term, thereby continuing to support pipeline inflation pressures. Ageing demographics would in advanced economies would, however, suggest downward pressure on prices in the longer-term, as testified by the experience of Japan.

The Great Moderation led investors to believe that stagflation had been confined to history, but higher inflation and slowing growth is stoking fears of an impending return. Unlike the 1970s stagflation, there has hitherto not been an outward shift in the Phillips Curve or an unhinging of inflationary expectations. Meanwhile, in contrast to the 1970s, there is no lack of supply in crude oil  to meet demand from the corporate and household sectors.
Due to legacies from the Great Depression, central banks arguably sowed the seeds for stagflation in the 1970s by prioritising full employment versus price stability in the preceding 25 years, but objectives changed towards controlling inflation after Paul Volcker took charge of the Fed in 1979. The global financial crisis has shifted central banks' policy focus back to full employment, thereby fuelling fears of a return to stagflation.
The price elasticity of demand for labour, particularly in the US, has risen since the 1970s as companies have focussed on maximising shareholder value, involving offshoring production and the deployment of labour-saving technology. Stagflation in the 1970s was partly attributable to slow capacity expansion and strong labour force growth that produced deteriorating  productivity, but slowing labour force growth force raises the ante on companies to invest in new capacity to counter a looming scarcity of workers.
Supply chain dislocations could persist in the short-term, thereby continuing to support pipeline inflation pressures. Ageing demographics would in advanced economies would, however, suggest downward pressure on prices in the longer-term, as testified by the experience of Japan. 

A Return to 1970s Stagflation? Nuances Suggest Not So Fast