Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

All-round Multi-Asset investor. Former head of a EUR 5 billion multi-asset fund range. Speaker. Charts & Frameworks. Founder of True Insights, a provider of independent investment research, trade ideas & well-diversified portfolios.
https://true-insights.net/

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Focusing on the Services and Not Manufacturing PMI Does Provide Upside in Eurozone Equities!

The Weekly Market Monitor (30) – Behold the Dovish Shift!

Expect the ISM Manufacturing to Rise to 48, Signaling 14% Downside for Equities

This Is a ‘Frenzy’ Market, and the Rally Should End Now!

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True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The US Truck Tonnage Index (TTI) 'explains' 95% of the level of US GDP. After a substantial increase in June, the TTI does not point to an immediate US recession.</li>
<li>Given its robust relationship with US stock markets, we derive 'fair value' estimates for the Dow Jones Transportation and S&amp;P 500 Index, revealing ample downside for both indices.</li>
<li>In addition, a simple TTI-based investment strategy using these fair value estimates results in a superior Sharpe ratio, explained by higher returns and lower risk.</li>
</ul>


The US Truck Tonnage Index (TTI) 'explains' 95% of the level of US GDP. After a substantial increase in June, the TTI does not point to an immediate US recession.
Given its robust relationship with US stock markets, we derive 'fair value' estimates for the Dow Jones Transportation and S&amp;P 500 Index, revealing ample downside for both indices.
In addition, a simple TTI-based investment strategy using these fair value estimates results in a superior Sharpe ratio, explained by higher returns and lower risk.


A Key US Macro Indicator Rose the Most Since Covid but Still Points to 20% Downside in Equities