Could Fuel Excise Hikes in 2018 Spoil Upbeat Consumption Prospects?

Philippines Macroeconomist/Strategist

Jun Trinidad

Macroeconomics

Lower than expected 4Q17 GDP growth of 6.6%YoY contributed to robust growth of 6.7% in 2017, the first year of President Duterte’s term, although less stellar than the 2016 (election year) growth (6.9%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, 4Q GDP grew by 1.5%QoQ SA as momentum eased from +1.7%QoQ SA in 3Q17. The key growth catalyst was fiscal spending as government consumption grew 14.1%YoY while public construction rose sharply by 25.1%YoY during the quarter. The pace of 4Q HH consumption shifted…

Lower than expected 4Q17 GDP growth of 6.6%YoY contributed to robust growth of 6.7% in 2017, the first year of President Duterte’s term, although less stellar than the 2016 (election year) growth (6.9%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, 4Q GDP grew by 1.5%QoQ SA as momentum eased from +1.7%QoQ SA in 3Q17. The key growth catalyst was fiscal spending as government consumption grew 14.1%YoY while public construction rose sharply by 25.1%YoY during the quarter. The pace of 4Q HH consumption shifted…

4Q17 GDP Eases Although Robust Demand Noted