European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

La Banque Postale / CNP Assurances: Start of Offer Period

République Française/EDF: Possible Offer for Minorities

République Française/​EDF: 53% Premium

CNP Assurances: Potential Minorities Buyout

Event-Driven

In my <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cnp-assurances-potential-minorities-buyout" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:59360" rel="noopener">CNP Assurances: Potential Minorities Buyout</a> I mentioned the possibility of an offer to buy out the minorities of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnp-assurances" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21421:1" rel="noopener">CNP Assurances (CNP FP)</a>, while the stock was still trading cheap, and recommended to be long the stock.
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Today 28 October, La Banque Postale (LBP) has <a href="https://www.cnp.fr/en/the-cnp-assurances-group/newsroom/press-releases/2021/la-banque-postale-and-groupe-bpce-intend-to-streamline-their-shareholding-relationships-and-strengthen-their-industrial-partnerships" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced its intention</a> to acquire CNP Assurances’ shares held by Groupe BPCE and to file a simplified public tender offer with the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) for CNP Assurances’ minority shareholders (21.1%) at the price of €21.90/share, cum dividend, a premium of 36.2% to the prior day closing price, with the intention of ultimately implementing a squeeze-out (for which LBP needs at least c. 53% acceptances from the free float). The offer represents a 40% upside to the closing price of the day of publication of my insight.
The consideration represents an implied equity value of approximately €15,026 million, and 10.0x 22e P/E, in line with the 10.1x median of European peers (vs. 6.9x at the time of publication of my previous insight).
There is not any interloper risk and the transaction will have the green light from regulators and the French state while the premium, optically generous, puts the stock in line with listed European peers.
If you bought following publication of my previous insight, a 40% gross return is enough reason to cash in and look for other opportunities; otherwise, long and tender for a safe 1.8% annualised spread, with closing in about 6 months.
The stock has traded €81 million by 2pm.
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In my CNP Assurances: Potential Minorities Buyout I mentioned the possibility of an offer to buy out the minorities of CNP Assurances (CNP FP), while the stock was still trading cheap, and recommended to be long the stock.

Today 28 October, La Banque Postale (LBP) has announced its intention to acquire CNP Assurances’ shares held by Groupe BPCE and to file a simplified public tender offer with the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) for CNP Assurances’ minority shareholders (21.1%) at the price of €21.90/share, cum dividend, a premium of 36.2% to the prior day closing price, with the intention of ultimately implementing a squeeze-out (for which LBP needs at least c. 53% acceptances from the free float). The offer represents a 40% upside to the closing price of the day of publication of my insight.
The consideration represents an implied equity value of approximately €15,026 million, and 10.0x 22e P/E, in line with the 10.1x median of European peers (vs. 6.9x at the time of publication of my previous insight).
There is not any interloper risk and the transaction will have the green light from regulators and the French state while the premium, optically generous, puts the stock in line with listed European peers.
If you bought following publication of my previous insight, a 40% gross return is enough reason to cash in and look for other opportunities; otherwise, long and tender for a safe 1.8% annualised spread, with closing in about 6 months.
The stock has traded €81 million by 2pm.


CNP Assurances

36% Takeover Premium