Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

The thirtieth anniversary of Black Monday in 1987 raises questions about whether the events leading up to the crash could unfold once again in the current environment.The Reagan Administration did not expect foreigners to view their fiscal policy conduct as profligate, while the decision to replace former Fed Chairman Volcker in July 1987 enhanced this unflattering impression.Rapidly eroding US equity valuations, both absolute and versus bonds, were largely ignored in 1987, even after the sacking of former Fed Chairman Volcker.Former Fed Chairman Greenspan was forced to raise interest rates during the 1988 Presidential Election campaign, an outcome President Reagan desperately sought to avoid.There are many similarities between the present environment and 1987 that investors should not ignore lightly, but equity valuations are currently higher, partly reflecting lower inflationary expectations as well as complacency.Significant equity shrinkage was a major reason propelling equity prices higher in 1987, but buybacks are less of an important factor in the current bull market.In contrast to 1987, huge US political dysfunctionality raises the risk of any significant future market fallout imparting serious damage on the real economy.

The thirtieth anniversary of Black Monday in 1987 raises questions about whether the events leading up to the crash could unfold once again in the current environment.The Reagan Administration did not expect foreigners to view their fiscal policy conduct as profligate, while the decision to replace former Fed Chairman Volcker in July 1987 enhanced this unflattering impression.Rapidly eroding US equity valuations, both absolute and versus bonds, were largely ignored in 1987, even after the sacking of former Fed Chairman Volcker.Former Fed Chairman Greenspan was forced to raise interest rates during the 1988 Presidential Election campaign, an outcome President Reagan desperately sought to avoid.There are many similarities between the present environment and 1987 that investors should not ignore lightly, but equity valuations are currently higher, partly reflecting lower inflationary expectations as well as complacency.Significant equity shrinkage was a major reason propelling equity prices higher in 1987, but buybacks are less of an important factor in the current bull market.In contrast to 1987, huge US political dysfunctionality raises the risk of any significant future market fallout imparting serious damage on the real economy.

30th Anniversary: Forget the Lessons of Black Monday 1987 at Your Peril