bullish

2019 Elections - Part 1. Thailand: Magic Moment for Democracy’s Return?

1k Views07 Feb 2019 09:51
SUMMARY

After nearly five years of rule and multiple false starts, the military junta has announced an election that paves the way for a return to democracy (under a new constitution). Although the rules of the game favor the military, do not count out the pro-Thaksin PTP opposition party from a strong showing. Above all else, markets would like to see a smooth election process and uncontested results. Still, even in the case of a dispute, Thailand’s strong sovereign balance sheet suggests a relatively muted reaction in risk assets unless violence erupts and poses harm to domestic confidence and the tourism industry.

This insight is Part 1 of a six-part series on 2019 elections in which we evaluate key polls and their potential to re-shape the economic outlook and investment risk profiles. These six markets - Thailand, Indonesia, India, South Africa, Greece and Argentina - collectively represent one-quarter of the world’s population and more than $5 trillion in GDP. We review distinct domestic challenges as well as campaign pledges by incumbents (and their challengers) aimed at addressing them. We also humbly assign probabilities to baseline and alternative scenarios and their implications for macroeconomic outlook and investments.

Even amidst their diversity, these six jurisdictions display some remarkable similarities: subdued economic momentum, bouts of market volatility, signs of voter disquiet and/or disillusionment and an opposition looking to capitalize on all of these forces. In a bid to revive the ‘magic’ that had helped to install their administrations, many incumbent governments are now on the defence - either changing tack (and dialing back past policies) or attempting to convince voters to let their policies work their magic.

Summary - Election timeline, political risk classification and market implications:

Election date (2019)

Degree of uncertainty

Baseline scenario (%)

Market implications

Market view

Thailand

24 March

Medium to High

Elections are held and pro-junta PP keeps control (65%)

Medium to Low

THB: Stable unless political uncertainty erodes confidence, tourism

ThaiGB: Stable

CDS: Gradually wider

SET: Energy, materials and capital goods favoured. More upside in non-bank financials vs financials.

Indonesia

17 April

Low

Jokowi re-elected, PDIP coalition intact (75%)

Medium

IDR/IndoGB: Constructive

INDON: Stable

JCI: prefer energy, materials, services, capital goods, transportation,and telco.Cautious on main banks.

India

April to May

High

BJP/NDA retain power, with smaller majority (60%)

High

INR/IGB: Steeper curve (bearish long-end)

CDS: Wider on potential negative sovereign outlook

Nifty: Cautious healthcare and banks. Overweight IT.

South Africa

7-31 May

Medium to High

ANC retains power (80%)

High

ZAR/SAGB: Constructive

SOAF: Constructive

JSE Top40: Constructive on Financials. Cautious on consumer.

Greece

20 October

Medium to High

ND returns to power (52%)

Medium to High

GGBs/CDS: Scope to tighten vs periphery peers

AEX: Banks may revive though European credit markets need to be watched. Energy, Infra, and utilities offer opportunity. Gaming too.

Argentina

27 October

High

Cambiemos retains power (52%)

High

ARS/Argtes: Peso richly valued but slower inflation positive for Argtes

ARGENT: Volatile

Merval: Volatile. Optically cheap valuations signify risk and weak growth. Hydrocarbons could be a winner. Cautious on consumer.

Source: Authors' assessment

Historical 5yr CDS (Argentina and Greece = LHS, all others RHS):

Historical equity indices (rebased where 1 Jan-2018 = 100):

Please refer to other insights in this series:

  • Elections 2019 - Part 1. Thailand: Magic Moment for Democracy’s Return?
  • Elections 2019 - Part 2. Indonesia: Jokowi’s Policies - Magic Bullet or Bitter Pill?
  • Elections 2019 - Part 3. India: Modi’s Magic Touch Fades as Populism Makes a Comeback
  • Elections 2019 - Part 4. South Africa: Ramaphosa - ANC’s Magician?
  • Elections 2019 - Part 5. Greece: New Democracy Promises Magic Makeover
  • Elections 2019 - Part 6. Argentina: Macri Magic and the Peronist Spell
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