Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Nomura Next F Jpx Nikkei 400 / Event-Driven

On August 7th after the close, the Japan Exchange Group announced the results of its annual review of JPX Nikkei 400 Index Components, resulting in 43 Inclusions and 42 names to be removed.&nbsp;The 42 Exclusions made up a combined weight of 2.7% of the index and as of the close, the 43&nbsp;Inclusions made up a combined expected weight of 5.1%. Toshiba (6502 JP) will be&nbsp;removed from the index because of its recent accounting scandal. TEPCO (9501 JP) was due to enter the index because of its 3-year average ROE and gain in the rankings but when domestic brokers published their expected index change lists in July, domestically there was a critical outcry regarding TEPCO's potential inclusion because of its recent past (and perhaps because of the fact that its E has been crushed and R artificially inflated by government injections and policies).Based on the particular makeup of the universe and relatively strict adherence to the rules and rankings, it is relatively easy to calculate - with a high degree of probability - what the changes in the index will be&nbsp;and last year's review showed that people had OVER-pre-positioned. This year, an arithmetically-weighted basket of the Inclusion Names outperformed its counterpart of Exclusion Names by 5% in the two months to Friday (counting TEPCO and Toshiba the outperformance would have been even higher).CONCLUSIONS<ul><li>As broad rebalances go, this is not terribly large.&nbsp;Based on calculations below, it would be reasonable to expect the total amount tracking the index to be about 3.2-4.0trln yen - not a huge amount. Based on that there would be approximately 240bn yen to buy and 240bn yen to sell (roughlly half exclusion half funding) at current prices.&nbsp;</li><li>The maximum impact in either direction is about 6 days of ADV but the sum total to trade on those two names is about $20mm.&nbsp;</li><li>As with most broad rebalances which are easily predictable, the best way to trade this is perhaps&nbsp;to fade the announcement. It has already moved several percent so there will be unwinds.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li><li>This is STILL a ridiculous index, designed to turn over 10% of its components a year, to over-weight 'new economy' businesses (the more expensive the higher the weight), to penalize those who ultimately become highly successful (market weight cap) and to sell low buy high in doing so (Sony got kicked out a couple of years ago; who will bet against it being put back in within 2yrs at 2-3x the price it got kicked out at?)</li><li>More detail - with tables and rankings - below the fold.</li></ul>

On August 7th after the close, the Japan Exchange Group announced the results of its annual review of JPX Nikkei 400 Index Components, resulting in 43 Inclusions and 42 names to be removed.&nbsp;The 42 Exclusions made up a combined weight of 2.7% of the index and as of the close, the 43&nbsp;Inclusions made up a combined expected weight of 5.1%. Toshiba (6502 JP) will be&nbsp;removed from the index because of its recent accounting scandal. TEPCO (9501 JP) was due to enter the index because of its 3-year average ROE and gain in the rankings but when domestic brokers published their expected index change lists in July, domestically there was a critical outcry regarding TEPCO's potential inclusion because of its recent past (and perhaps because of the fact that its E has been crushed and R artificially inflated by government injections and policies).Based on the particular makeup of the universe and relatively strict adherence to the rules and rankings, it is relatively easy to calculate - with a high degree of probability - what the changes in the index will be&nbsp;and last year's review showed that people had OVER-pre-positioned. This year, an arithmetically-weighted basket of the Inclusion Names outperformed its counterpart of Exclusion Names by 5% in the two months to Friday (counting TEPCO and Toshiba the outperformance would have been even higher).CONCLUSIONSAs broad rebalances go, this is not terribly large.&nbsp;Based on calculations below, it would be reasonable to expect the total amount tracking the index to be about 3.2-4.0trln yen - not a huge amount. Based on that there would be approximately 240bn yen to buy and 240bn yen to sell (roughlly half exclusion half funding) at current prices.&nbsp;The maximum impact in either direction is about 6 days of ADV but the sum total to trade on those two names is about $20mm.&nbsp;As with most broad rebalances which are easily predictable, the best way to trade this is perhaps&nbsp;to fade the announcement. It has already moved several percent so there will be unwinds.&nbsp;&nbsp;This is STILL a ridiculous index, designed to turn over 10% of its components a year, to over-weight 'new economy' businesses (the more expensive the higher the weight), to penalize those who ultimately become highly successful (market weight cap) and to sell low buy high in doing so (Sony got kicked out a couple of years ago; who will bet against it being put back in within 2yrs at 2-3x the price it got kicked out at?)More detail - with tables and rankings - below the fold.