China Archives | Page 6 of 153 | Smartkarma

• The company’ share bucked China catering sector’s down trend and rallied 30% in last few weeks.
• Its 2Q operating data suggest that its store opening is well on track with healthy SSSG, underpinning strong margin expansion.
• We believe that market still underestimates its growth and earnings potential which could beat consensus by wide margin. Interim results to be announced in August will be key catalyst.

• Chinese innovative drugmaker Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. has filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for an initial public offering (IPO) in an effort to tap fresh funding to support new drug development and overseas expansion.
• Biokin, already listed in Shanghai, did not disclose the target size of its Hong Kong offering. According to its preliminary prospectus, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Citic Securities Co. Ltd. are joint sponsors for the share sale.
• Founded in 1996, Biokin began as a producer of chemical generic drugs and proprietary Chinese medicines. The company has since 2011 moved on to novel biological drugs, focusing on antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) for cancer treatment.

• US markets suffered a bearish reversal on CPI data. Time look to elsewhere?
• China looks to be bottoming. Could the region begin to show relative strength?
• Emerging markets look particularly attractive especially if the dollar trades lower.

• Since waste-to-energy play Canvest Environmental Protection (1381 HK) announced a possible privatisation from Grandblue Environment (600323 CH) at $4.90/share (a 20.7% premium to undisturbed), shares are up just 6.4%. 
• There’s a lot to pack in here, not the least being this is an indicative Pre-Conditional Offer.
• But the fact the announcement mentions rolling over a specific number of shares of the controlling shareholders (7.23%), suggests negotiations are well advanced. So we explore.

• Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) announced that the share alternative pre-condition was satisfied. However, the share alternative offer remains at Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s discretion. 
• Loyal Valley Capital (LVC), a pre-IPO investor, emerged as a substantial shareholder on 10 July, the deadline for submitting letters of interest for the share alternative offer.
• The likely scenario is that the offer succeeds as the co-founders enter rollover arrangements, and a share alternative is introduced, which is taken by QIA and LVC. 

• Saint Bella (SAINT HK) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by UBS and Citic Securities.
• Saint Bella (SB) is a comprehensive family care group in China, focusing on premium services and products that addresses demand from the lifestyle-minded younger generation. 
• It is the largest postpartum care and recovery group in terms of revenue from ultra-premium postpartum centers in 2023, according to F&S.

• Onshore Equity ETF flows in China continued to be positive for 8th week. Southbound Connect flows in July are lower than June.
• Baidu, Bilibili and GDS have had positive share price moves on the back of news flow.
• The container shipping segment has had a sharp pullback on positive Middle East news and cement maker CNBM flags a loss in the first half.

• Stable, Steady, State-owned Enterprise with upside from policy push on AI
• Lowly rated company with a new cyclical growth story in a strategic sector
• Good balance sheet with the opportunity to raise payouts and yields.

• On 5th July 2024, Taste Gourmet (8371 HK)  submitted an application to Hkex to transfer the listing of all its issued Shares from GEM to the Main Board. 
• The company’s case is strong as it meets all the criteria proposed by the exchange, but there is no assurance that it will obtain relevant approval from the exchange. 
• Trading at 6.4x/5.2x PE FY24/25e with 25% of the market cap in net cash and a trailing yield of 8.5%, we believe a mainboard listing would provide incremental visibility. 

• Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)‘s (SFP) “Merger by Absorption” HK$24.60/share cash Offer for H-shares not held in Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), tentatively includes a scrip alternative.
• The first hurdle for the share option – valid letters of interest from those shareholders wishing to rollover – was secured yesterday. SCP still has the discretion on providing scrip.
• But if SFP had any lingering doubts whether to offer scrip, that was answered earlier this week with the emergence of a substantial shareholder who is typically a pre-IPO investor.

• The review cutoff date for the September rebalance of the HSIII was 28 June. The changes will be announced on 16 August and become effective after the close 6 September.
• There could be 3 changes to the index with some inclusions driven by potential addition to the Hang Seng Composite Index. That could lead to buying via Southbound Stock Connect.
• Capping will result in passives buying Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) while selling Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK).

• The Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK) vote on the share buyback for a maximum of 100.0m or 11.25% of outstanding shares at HK$2.15 was comfortably passed at the EGM.
• The partial offer is designed to help the co-founders bypass the creeper rule and increase their grip on the shares. There is no minimum acceptance condition. 
• While the IFA opines the offer is fair and reasonable, it is unattractive. A 100% minority participation rate implies a minimum proration of 20.74%. The offer closes on 23 July.  

• At a 4.6 FPE, you would expect to find some real concerns, however there are no gremlins anywhere?  
• What you are buying is an antibiotic developer and distributor who is performing better than expected, given that the antibiotic market is thriving.
• The extensive pipeline including GLP-1 drugs is still at an early stage/midway through development, however at this valuation, you are probably not paying for it!

• The growth factor drug market is highly competitive. Many competing products have been on the market for many years with NRDL reimbursement coverage and also accumulated rich recognition from doctors/patients.
• Even if Pro-101 is approved for market launch, B&K may have to reduce its price largely and invest heavily in market education/promotion. B&K’s commercialization capability still needs to be verified.
• Valuation of B&K would be lower than peers. It is hard for B&K to receive expected valuation premium since its latest round of post investment valuation is already RMB3.3 billion.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Lenovo

• The company announced a settlement with its subsidiary of 18 mn HKD. This is material as we estimate that core profit for FY24 (June-end) would be 30-35 mn HKD. 
• This settlement will be paid in cash (tranches) as it involves making the company whole on a vendor’s profit guarantee shortfall. It boosts cash and investments >340 mn HKD. 
• The stock is cheap, with net cash almost equal to the market capitalization, an 11x PE (on core profit), and a 9% dividend yield. 

• Back in May, online shopping platform play Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK) announced a buy-back of 11.25% of shares out, at $2.15/share, a mediocre 20.8% premium to undisturbed.
• The thrust of the Offer was to lift co-founder Ricky Wong’s stake to 51.55% from 45.75%.  But that required independent shareholders approving a whitewash waiver not to make a MGO.
• I didn’t expect shareholder pushback. And there wasn’t. Tendering closes on the 23rd July. Keep an eye on CCASS movements. Shares gained 4.7% yesterday prior to the EGM outcome. Mmm.

• Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology (Dobot), a Shenzhen-based cobot company with a diversified customer base globally, filed publicly for Hong Kong IPO.
• The terms of the IPO were not disclosed. The robotics company plans to increase production capacity due to high demand in the coming years.
• Dobot may be trading above the last round valuation of ~RMB3.5b, but I believe investors should focus on the company’s long-term growth prospects and rapidly growing TAM.

• EC Healthcare (2138 HK) reported muted FY24 result. While revenue increased 9% YoY to a record high of HK$4.2B, EBITDA and net profit declined 10% and 85%, YoY, respectively.
• The reopening of borders saw a slower-than-anticipated recovery in revenue from Chinese Mainland medical tourism. The prevailing high interest rate, inflationary pressure, and economic uncertainties have made the operations challenging.
• EC Healthcare shares plunged ~70% over the last one year. Although the company has long-term growth drivers and margin levers, there is short-term uncertainties over financial performance improvement.

• NetDragon’s stock is priced at 11.0 HKD with 531 million shares and a market cap of 5,870 HKD
• Company completed a reverse merger listing for its education business, causing some complications, but gaming business is seen as a hidden gem with growth potential
• NetDragon, operated by the Liu family, has a history of successful business incubation and has returned around 50% of its market capitalization to shareholders in the past three years

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• New Horizon Health is a “big client” of Deloitte, who, however, still delay the publication of 2023 results. This leads us to take the issues raised by Deloitte more seriously.
• It’s uncertain whether New Horizon Health would obtain the audit report with non-qualified opinion or “survive” the independent investigation.2023 Annual Report/2024 Mid-Year Report/2024 Annual Report may continue to be postponed.
• If New Horizon Health fails provide reasonable explanation, investors don’t need to spend any more time on the Company with no integrity.We forecast the timetable for the resumption of trading.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Vanke
• PT Pertamina (Persero)
• Sunny Optical Technology Group

• Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH) disclosed a potential pre-conditional privatisation of Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK) at HK$4.90 per share, a 20.7% premium to the last close price. 
• Completing the capital injection from SOE entities into the offeror is a precondition. Grandblue also proposes that the controlling shareholder roll over 7.23% of its effective 44.75% stake. 
• While not a knockout bid, the offer is reasonable. Shareholders with blocking stakes should support a binding proposal. Timing is the key risk. 

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), A8 New Media (800 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Asia Cement China (743 HK). 
• Lowest spreads: Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP), Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP). 

• EU, like the US, is considering lowering “de minimis” import threshold, soon
• Lowering import value thresholds or raising reporting requirements could make SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress goods more expensive, and fulfillment more onerous
• Threat of “de minimis” changes coming just as SHEIN reportedly seeks an IPO

• SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$10.9bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.
• The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.
• But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

• Fosun’s preferred arrangement for Henlius is to list the Company in A-shares.Since IPO in A-shares failed and Henlius has begun to generate profits, Fosun finally feels the need for privatization.
• Due to its “flaws”, undervaluation of Henlius in the Hong Kong stock market is difficult to fundamentally change. So, for conservative/cautious investors, Fosun’s one-time acquisition at a 30% premium is attractive.
• The Potential Share Alternative Offer seems a good option, but it is uncertain whether investors are still willing to believe in Fosun’s “good story” – the future re-listing is uncertain.

• The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
• Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 13.9bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought utilities and raw materials and sold everything else, especially consumer names. Appliances remain on the sell side.
• It is notable that net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly “short gamma”, which is to say, sector underperformers are being sold, not bought.

• The review period for the September rebalance ends 30 July. We expect the changes to be announced 30 August with the implementation taking place after the close on 13 September.
• We forecast 6 changes for the index, including migrations between the STAR 100 Index and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX).
• Excluding the migrations, the potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes since the start of the calendar year and there could be further outperformance over the next few weeks.

• Operations are on track with earlier guidance given during FY23 results, loads and yields are healthy, with UK and North American performing better than expected  
• Will buyback and cancel remaining 97.7m preference shares for a sum of HKD10b by end of July 2024. Shareholder dilution has been avoided  
• Cathay Pacific is a value BUY, our target price of HK$9.90 (+24% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE, parity multiple against its arch-rival Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) 

• Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology (Dobot), a China-based cobot company, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. Cobots are robots with operational robotic arms intended for collaboration within a shared space.
• Dobot was backed by CICC, CRRC VC, Greenpine Growth, Qianhai Equity, and China Internet Investment Fund, among others. The company was founded in 2015 in Shenzhen, PRC.
• The offering may attract significant investor interest after South Korea’s robotics company Doosan Robotics could raise ~$318M in October 2023.

• BYD’s sales volume increased by 35% YoY in June and by 39% YoY in 2Q24.
• Tesla’s Model Y is on the state-owned corporation procurement catalogs.
• Microsoft plans to close its franchised store chain in China due to the weak demand for Surface.

• I tally 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
• Just one new deal was discussed this week on Smartkarma: Sermsuk PCL (SSC TB)‘s Delisting Offer. There are also rumours of an Offer for Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP).
• Key updates took place on: L’Occitane (973 HK), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), MMA Offshore (MRM AU), and Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: Aisin (7259 JP), Honda Motor (7267 JP) placements; Sanil Electric (062040 KS), Shift Up (462870 KS) and Timee Inc (215A JP) IPOs.
• Event-Driven developments: ESR Group (1821 HK), L’Occitane (973 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US). 

• The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
• The reference period for the September 2024 index rebal event is now complete. In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes.
• Our current estimates suggest one-way flows due to index changes and capping could be around US$733mn but that could change by early September 2024.

• Chow Tai Fook Jewellery’s shares are down 28.2% YTD, sharply underperforming the Hang Seng Index which is up 6% in the same period. We believe this divergence is excessive. 
• Chow Tai Fook’s dividend yield averaged 4.8% from FY20 to FY24. Its annual dividend payout averaged 107% in the same period.
• Chai Tai Fook is currently trading at attractive valuations. It is trading at P/E of 10.1x, EV/EBITDA of 7.5x, and P/B of 2.9x based on FY25 consensus earnings estimates. 

• For all licensing cooperation with MNCs, we recommend that investors wait to see what MNCs’ next move is before deciding whether the cooperation is really promising.
• Topchoice showed good business growth in 24Q2. Our biggest concern for Topchoice is that the unit price per customer may further decrease in the future, thereby affecting revenue/profit growth.
• Junshi’s sales growth picked up in 24Q1, but concerns on Junshi persist. We don’t think Junshi is undervalued and its valuation should be lower than that of peers.

• The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
• In mid-June 2024, we had two expected ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event and they remain unchanged even after the end of the reference period.
• However, our capping flow expectations continue to change as the pro-forma post-rebalance weights change with share prices. In this insight, we have provided our latest flow estimates.

• SHEIN’s fast-fashion apparel is set to hit India through Reliance Retail’s platforms, marking a major comeback after the 2020 ban.
• This partnership could be a win-win, tapping into India’s booming fashion demand and offering Shein access to the world’s largest youth market, ahead of its proposed IPO.
• With Shein’s affordable styles and Reliance’s extensive network, this alliance targets the youth market, challenging brands like Tata Group’s Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) owned Zudio.

• The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
• Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
• The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: J&T Global Express (1519 HK), Flat Glass (6865 HK), Lifetech Scientific (1302 HK), and PCCW Ltd (8 HK).

• After an explosive rally in April, the Hang Seng Index has been in a downtrend since mid-May, many are wondering where the index is headed next.
• July 2024, based on our seasonal pattern analysis, does not have a great chance to close higher (it could, but the odds are not good).
• If the index goes down in the next 2 weeks, buy the 17600-17300 price area.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Road King Infrastructure
• Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd
• Vedanta Resources

• Hozon New Energy Automobile Co Ltd (1850123D CH) seeks to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, MS, Citic, ABCI and CMBI.
• Hozon New Energy Automobile (HNEA) is a NEV technology company which sells cars under the Neta brand. The prices of its vehicles generally range between US$15,000 to US$45,000. 
• The firm has been expanding into the more profitable mid-to-high-end market segment and replicating its local success in overseas markets.

• Bloomberg reports that the bidding consortium is in talks to bring in other partners, such as QIA, PIF, and CPP Investment Board, to aid in privatising ESR Group (1821 HK).
• Warburg Pincus and OMERS have blocking stakes for a Cayman scheme. Warburg Pincus is seemingly supportive, and the consortium’s expansion talks suggest confidence in meeting OMERS’ price expectations.
• Our best guess is that an offer is around HK$14.00. ESR’s current valuation is undemanding, with its forward EV/EBITDA multiple at a 40% discount compared to the median peers’ multiple.

• Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK) is a play on strengthening coking coal prices with downside protection due to its net cash reserves of 1.1 bn USD (Vs. Mkt Cap 2.1).
• At the lower end of the cost curve, its EBITDA margins have averaged 54% (last 16 years), with its lowest EBITDA number of 19% in FY15.
• With an 80% payout, the company trades at a trailing yield of 9% (the average spot price assumed is 1900 RMB/ton).

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Vanke
• Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

• Although UGenix is a genetic technology company focusing on prenatal testing/precision oncology, it was the large-scale COVID-19 testing demand that made UGenix’s overall revenue grow rapidly, which, however, is unsustainable.
• NIPT market size is far less than expected. The clinical need for NGS has not developed as rigid demand. Restrictions on companion diagnosis pricing indicate market space would be compressed.
• The business of both prenatal testing and precision oncology are not easy. Due to uncertain commercialization outlook/profitability and other negative factors, UGenix’s stock price after IPO could underperform.

• The slow progress of privatization is related to recent high-level changes in CNPGC. Decisions on SOE deals with “strategic purpose” require careful considerations, not based on “one leader’s personal preferences”.
• Based on public information, we cannot find convincing reason to prove that CNPGC has changed its mind.There’re rumors that China TCM’s privatization is still considered important project on the agenda.
• China TCM’s has strong fundamentals to support valuation. If there is no announcement, the privatization process is expected to proceed as usual, and we continue to wait for the voting.  

• We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.
• We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
• There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

• ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) is expected to replace Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the September rebalance.
• Constituent changes and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 3.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of HK$7.8bn (US$1bn).
• Short interest is near the lows on both stocks but there has been a recent tick higher for ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK).

• Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK) is looking to raise up to US$174m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.
• Chenqi Technology (Chenqi) is a mobility technology and service company in China, founded by the GAC Group and Tencent.
• In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance and PHIP updates. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.