Earnings Alerts

Shell PLC (SHEL) Earnings Outlook: 4Q Production and OPEX Projections Amid Lower Trading Results

  • Shell’s integrated gas production for Q4 2024 is expected to range between 880,000 to 920,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/D).
  • Upstream production is anticipated to be between 1.79 million to 1.89 million BOE/D.
  • Expected operating expenses for Integrated Gas are projected to be $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion.
  • Upstream operating expenses are expected to range from $2.2 billion to $2.8 billion.
  • Chemicals & Products operating expenses forecasted to be between $2.0 billion to $2.4 billion.
  • Integrated Gas Trading & Optimisation results are anticipated to fall significantly compared to Q3 2024 due to the non-cash impact of expiring hedging contracts.
  • The performance in Chemicals and Products Trading & Optimisation is expected to decline significantly due to seasonal factors.
  • Sshell’s net debt will incorporate $4 billion to $6 billion in new lease liabilities recognized in Q4 2024, including those from the LNG Canada pipeline.
  • Chemicals operations earnings are projected to reflect a loss for the fourth quarter.
  • Cash flow from operations (CFFO), excluding working capital, is expected to have about a $1.3 billion outflow tied to emissions certificate payments for German and US programs.
  • Expectations for working capital movements include around a $1 billion payment of German Mineral Oil Taxes.
  • Overall Trading & Optimisation outcomes are projected to be considerably lower than the third quarter due to the expiry of hedging contracts.
  • In terms of market recommendations, Shell has 20 buy ratings, 6 hold ratings, and no sell ratings.

Shell PLC on Smartkarma



Analysts on Smartkarma have been closely following Shell PLC, providing valuable insights on the company’s performance. The IDEA! report highlighted Shell’s gas joint venture with Equinor in the UK, among other industry updates. On the positive side, Suhas Reddy‘s analysis reported that Shell exceeded expectations due to robust LNG sales, resulting in a share buyback program. This contrasts with another report by Suhas Reddy indicating a bearish sentiment for Shell, with expectations of revenue and EPS declines in Q3.

Moreover, Shell anticipates challenges in refining margins in Q3, but aims for increased upstream production to offset the impact. Despite concerns, Shell’s strategic focus on LNG and low-carbon solutions is highlighted, showcasing a long-term vision for the company’s energy sales mix. In a recent earnings review, Shell surpassed earnings forecasts driven by strong gains in upstream and retail sectors, leading to a reduction in net debt. The analyst coverage on Smartkarma offers a comprehensive view of Shell PLC‘s performance and future prospects.



A look at Shell PLC Smart Scores

FactorScoreMagnitude
Value4
Dividend4
Growth5
Resilience3
Momentum4
OVERALL SMART SCORE4.0

Smart Score is a compound score for the Company indicating its overall outlook. It is derived by taking an equally weighted average of underlying Factor scores computed by Smartkarma

Shell PLC, a global player in petroleum products exploration and refining, demonstrates a promising long-term outlook based on its Smartkarma Smart Scores. With strong scores across key factors such as value and dividend, Shell shows stability and attractiveness for investors seeking consistent returns. Furthermore, its high growth score indicates potential for expansion and increased profitability in the future. Although the resilience score is slightly lower, indicating some vulnerability in challenging market conditions, the overall momentum score suggests a positive trend in the company’s performance, making Shell PLC a compelling choice for investors looking for a reliable and growing investment.

Shell PLC, known for its production of fuels, chemicals, and lubricants for a global clientele, is well-positioned for long-term success according to the Smartkarma Smart Scores analysis. With a solid value score and robust dividend rating, Shell offers investors a strong foundation for steady returns. The high growth score signals opportunities for the company to capitalize on market trends and enhance its market position. While the resilience score may present some areas for improvement, the favorable momentum score indicates a positive trajectory for Shell PLC, suggesting a promising outlook for investors seeking a reliable and potentially rewarding investment.


Disclaimer: This article by Smartkarma is general in nature and based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that our articles may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation, Smartkarma makes no assurance about the accuracy of any generated data or content. All content is indicative only and should be independently checked for accuracy and confirmed before use. Smartkarma accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage caused as a result of any inaccuracy or error within the Lab online tools or generated data.
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