Daily Brief China: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, TI Fluid Systems , Lippo Karawaci and more

• Shockingly, the Sinopharm-led consortium’s offer for China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) has lapsed as the precondition long stop date has not been extended.
• This deal break caught many, including me, off guard. There are lessons to be learnt and questions to be asked. 
• Shareholders will have a bruising Monday. Our analysis suggests a deal break price of around HK$3.44, a 10% downside to the last close.

• TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN) is trading at 10% gross spread to ABC (Apollo)’s Proposal, which the Board of TIFS would be minded to recommend if made firm.
• Although TIFS has made notable strategic progress recently, and maintained margins despite tough conditions over the last years, the short-term car picture has gotten progressively worse.
• 200p implies 4.6x EV/NTM EBITDA versus global auto suppliers trading on a median of 4.4x and represents a good-value exit. I believe the deal will complete. Long.

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Vedanta Resources
2. Longfor Properties
3. Anton Oilfield
4. Adani Green Energy
5. Reliance Industries

and more…