Indonesia

• GoTo reported 3Q2023 results on Monday. Gross revenues increased 1.4% YoY to IDR5.98trn while adj. EBITDA losses further narrowed down to IDR1.84trn vs IDR3.71trn in 3Q2022.
• GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ) continues to see huge reduction in losses but growth rates have fallen further with cutdown on incentives and promotional spending.
• It seems that GoTo has stopped exploring growth opportunities in pursuit of profits, however, this may not be sustainable in the long-term with falling growth rates.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Lippo Karawaci

• Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) 3Q2023 results confirmed that it is on track to achieving EBITDA breakeven in 4Q2023, with strong revenue growth and a significant improvement in its contribution margin.
• The was a slight slowdown in marketplace revenue QoQ due to a high Lebaran base, mainly due to slower gaming. 4Q2023 should see a strong recovery and higher take rates. 
• Bukalapak looks to be pressing all the right buttons but more granularity on what is driving higher take rates would be well-received . Valuations look attractive relative to peers.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Vanke
• Gajah Tunggal
• Reliance Industries
• Xiaomi Corp
• Yankuang Energy Group

• Siloam International Hospitals booked strong set of 3Q2023 with continuing evidence of the recovery in its core base-case business together with the effectiveness of its cost and efficiency initiatives. 
• The company saw a strong recovery across outpatient visits and inpatient admissions, with evidence of greater treatment complexity along with higher intensity with less time spent in hospital. 
• Siloam International Hospitals continues to focus on digitising its processes to improve both patient experience and its internal processes. Valuations remain attractive versus listed peers.

• BFI Finance‘s 3Q2023 results reflected the lingering impact of May’s Malware incident which interrupted collections but this situation has now been remedied and the company can resume rebuilding its book.
• 4Q2023 will likely see further write-offs but an improvement in credit costs but the company will remain cautious on building its book with a full recovery expected in 2H2024. 
• BFI Finance remains the best-quality multi-finance company in Indonesia, with a low cost of funds and a differentiated target market of used 4W and 2W non-dealer loans. Valuations are attractive. 

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Adani Green Energy
2. Vedanta Resources
3. China Jinmao Holdings
4. Geely Auto
5. First Pacific Co

and more…

• Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to sell Bank Central Asia (BBCA) and Adaro Energy (ADRO) while buying Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) and GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO). 
• There will be passive trading to other stocks too, though the impact and flow is not material on most of the stocks.
• Passive trackers will trade at the close on 31 October, so there are only 3 days to implementation of the changes.

• Bank Rakyat Indonesia’s numbers made for positive reading with loan growth coming through in productive areas, especially for Kupedes commercial micro-loans but also from its PNM and Pegadaian subsidiaries.
• The bank maintained its funding costs at highly competitive levels despite rising rates and time deposit growth with NIMs improving due to a better loan mix in micro.
• Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) remains the most direct way to get exposure to greater financial inclusion and the underbanked in Indonesia. Valuations remain attractive with rising ROA and ROE. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Medco Energi

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We view Japfa Comfeed’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.

• We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety.
• Our top picks are Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), Water Oasis (1161 HK), Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), Uchi Technologies (UCHI MK), and The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM).
• We add the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) and Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) to our list of names that we look at after our recent Philippines trip. 

• Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) released another set of positive numbers in 3Q2023, outperforming the overall sector on loan and CASA growth, allowing the banks to maintain NIMs and profitability.
• The bank’s digital banking franchise continues to grow, with 31 million users of its mobile banking, boosting transactions and customer numbers, with a broadening of features and service offerings available. 
• Consumer banking, SME, and Corporate lending will continue to drive loan growth and credit costs continue to come down boosting profits. Bank Central Asia remains a core holding. 

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Medco Energi
2. NagaCorp Ltd
3. China Vanke
4. Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
5. Tata Motors Ltd

and more…

• This transaction just keeps on giving. First, you received an additional dividend. Now the Offer price has been increased. 
• On the 26 July, Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP) announced an intention to acquire a 58.65% stake in coal miner Golden Eagle Energy (SMMT IJ) (GEE).
• Geo shareholders approved the purchase on the October 13 and the acquisition was completed on the 18 October. This triggered an MTO, which has been revised upward to IDR 1,305.50.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Medco Energi
• Sands China