Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.</li>
<li>A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.</li>
<li>With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is <em>above</em> $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.
A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.
With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.


Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Petroleo Brasileiro  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.</li>
<li>Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX</li>
</ul>


Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.
Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.
Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX


Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Indian pharmaceutical companies started FY24 on a strong note. Due to better pricing environment, drug shortages, and new launches, sector heavyweights reported double-digit revenue growth from U.S. business.</li>
<li>Price erosion has come down to high single-digit from their peak of mid-teens. Despite the rise in number of ANDA approvals from the US FDA, Indian companies continued their dominance.</li>
<li>Indian pharmaceutical companies have accelerated the filing pace. With shorter timeline of approval, the companies are witnessing a spike in number of approvals. Regulatory risk remains the main downside risk.</li>
</ul>


Indian pharmaceutical companies started FY24 on a strong note. Due to better pricing environment, drug shortages, and new launches, sector heavyweights reported double-digit revenue growth from U.S. business.
Price erosion has come down to high single-digit from their peak of mid-teens. Despite the rise in number of ANDA approvals from the US FDA, Indian companies continued their dominance.
Indian pharmaceutical companies have accelerated the filing pace. With shorter timeline of approval, the companies are witnessing a spike in number of approvals. Regulatory risk remains the main downside risk.


Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

Equity Bottom-Up

Alkem Laboratories Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkem-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26928:1" rel="noopener">Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN)</a> is flying high on strong Q2 numbers. The shares rallied 23% since the company announced Q2FY24 result in early November, widely outperforming Nifty Pharma index.</li>
<li>In Q2FY24, revenue grew 12% YoY, and gross margin expanded 380bps to 61.4% backed by lower raw material cost and lower intensity of price erosion in US market.</li>
<li>For the U.S. business, Alkem is looking at high-single-digit growth in dollar terms for FY24. The company has reiterated FY24 gross margin guidance at 59.0–59.5%.</li>
</ul>



Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN) is flying high on strong Q2 numbers. The shares rallied 23% since the company announced Q2FY24 result in early November, widely outperforming Nifty Pharma index.
In Q2FY24, revenue grew 12% YoY, and gross margin expanded 380bps to 61.4% backed by lower raw material cost and lower intensity of price erosion in US market.
For the U.S. business, Alkem is looking at high-single-digit growth in dollar terms for FY24. The company has reiterated FY24 gross margin guidance at 59.0–59.5%.


Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Further Upside on Card on US Business and Margin Improvement

<ul>
<li>In Q2FY24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ipca-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15774:1" rel="noopener">Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN)</a> reported 10% growth in domestic formulation business, driven by 12% growth in pain management. In FY24, domestic formulation is expected to growth 12–14%.  </li>
<li>Ipca now holds 52.67% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unichem-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8267:1" rel="noopener">Unichem Laboratories (UL IN)</a>. Ipca is confident to clock revenue of INR1.7–1.8B and EBITDA of INR300M from Unichem within two years of acquisition.</li>
<li>As facilities are back onstream, Ipca is augmenting the supply chain and revalidating of all the formulations and updating them. Shipment to the U.S. may begin in Q1FY25.</li>
</ul>


In Q2FY24, Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN) reported 10% growth in domestic formulation business, driven by 12% growth in pain management. In FY24, domestic formulation is expected to growth 12–14%.  
Ipca now holds 52.67% stake in Unichem Laboratories (UL IN). Ipca is confident to clock revenue of INR1.7–1.8B and EBITDA of INR300M from Unichem within two years of acquisition.
As facilities are back onstream, Ipca is augmenting the supply chain and revalidating of all the formulations and updating them. Shipment to the U.S. may begin in Q1FY25.


Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN): Stellar Domestic Performance; US Business Poised for Scaling Up

India

Cadila Healthcare Ltd. manufactures, and markets healthcare solutions ranging from formulations, active pharmaceutical ingredients, vaccines, diagnostics, health and dietetic foods, animal healthcare to cosmeceuticals.  The Company's products are available in tablets, capsules, injections, liquids, dry syrups, powders, granules, and ointments.

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Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN)

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas globally. Constructive if supports hold: $98-99 on...

Vermilion Research

Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

Indian pharma companies saw strong U.S. revenue growth in H1FY24 due to better pricing, drug shortages, and new launches. With robust pipeline and...

Tina Banerjee

Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Further Upside on Card on US Business and Margin Improvement

Alkem is looking at high-single-digit growth in dollar terms from US business in FY24. FY24 gross margin guidance is 59.0–59.5%, backed by lower...

Tina Banerjee

Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN): Stellar Domestic Performance; US Business Poised for Scaling Up

In Q2FY24, Ipca reports 10% growth in domestic formulation business and expects 12-14% growth in FY24, riding on the strength of pain management...

Tina Banerjee

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas globally. Constructive if supports hold: $98-99 on...

Vermilion Research

Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

​Indian pharma companies saw strong U.S. revenue growth in H1FY24 due to better pricing, drug shortages, and new launches. With robust pipeline and...

Tina Banerjee

Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Further Upside on Card on US Business and Margin Improvement

Alkem is looking at high-single-digit growth in dollar terms from US business in FY24. FY24 gross margin guidance is 59.0–59.5%, backed by lower...

Tina Banerjee

Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN): Stellar Domestic Performance; US Business Poised for Scaling Up

​In Q2FY24, Ipca reports 10% growth in domestic formulation business and expects 12-14% growth in FY24, riding on the strength of pain management...

Tina Banerjee

Indian pharma companies saw strong U.S. revenue growth in H1FY24 due to better pricing, drug shortages, and new launches. With robust pipeline and...

In Q2FY24, Ipca reports 10% growth in domestic formulation business and expects 12-14% growth in FY24, riding on the strength of pain management...