Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Down 66% from its 2021 IPO price, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/full-truck-alliance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33429:1" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance (YMM US)</a> has been a loser for investors, though we would argue its underlying performance on fundamentals has been mixed</li>
<li>We believe FTA's narrow focus on expanding its lead in China's spot, inter-city FTL trucking market blinds management to the broader role it must pursue to ensure long-term growth</li>
<li>FTA should aggressively funnel users into its Transaction Commission segment and invest in building a Transportation Management Software offering to attract and retain customers</li>
</ul>


Down 66% from its 2021 IPO price, Full Truck Alliance (YMM US) has been a loser for investors, though we would argue its underlying performance on fundamentals has been mixed
We believe FTA's narrow focus on expanding its lead in China's spot, inter-city FTL trucking market blinds management to the broader role it must pursue to ensure long-term growth
FTA should aggressively funnel users into its Transaction Commission segment and invest in building a Transportation Management Software offering to attract and retain customers


Full Truck Alliance: Currently Less Than 'Full Loaded', but Issues Are Fully Fixable

<ul>
<li>We compare H1 revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA margins of six companies</li>
<li>We then add needed context to aid understanding of each company's results</li>
<li>We think it's time to look for bargains in express; focus on SF Holding, Yunda</li>
</ul>


We compare H1 revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA margins of six companies
We then add needed context to aid understanding of each company's results
We think it's time to look for bargains in express; focus on SF Holding, Yunda


Chinese Express H124 Earnings | Worst of Price Competition Over | Look for Bargains | BUY SF, Yunda

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We believe SF's core express margins are higher than most of its peers' margins</li>
<li>But on 2023 EV / EBITDA SF trades at multiples below most Chinese, US peers</li>
<li>One objective of SF listing in HK is to attract global investors, lift valuation</li>
</ul>


We believe SF's core express margins are higher than most of its peers' margins
But on 2023 EV / EBITDA SF trades at multiples below most Chinese, US peers
One objective of SF listing in HK is to attract global investors, lift valuation


SF Holding Pre-IPO: Core EBITDA Margins Compare Favorably to Most Express Peers in China and US

<ul>
<li>SF Holding's time-definite express service differentiates it from Chinese rivals</li>
<li>We believe SF dominates China's domestic inter-city air express segment</li>
<li>High exposure to air service mostly beneficial, with few risks, in our view</li>
</ul>


SF Holding's time-definite express service differentiates it from Chinese rivals
We believe SF dominates China's domestic inter-city air express segment
High exposure to air service mostly beneficial, with few risks, in our view


SF Holding Pre-IPO: Dominance in Domestic Time-Definite (Air) Express Is a Durable Differentiator

<ul>
<li>In this insight we cover recent earnings results, revenue mix, YTD trends</li>
<li>Fluctuating performance of its international segment impacted FY23 and Q124</li>
<li>Improving international segment could boost overall momentum in Q2-Q4 2024</li>
</ul>


In this insight we cover recent earnings results, revenue mix, YTD trends
Fluctuating performance of its international segment impacted FY23 and Q124
Improving international segment could boost overall momentum in Q2-Q4 2024


SF Holding Pre-IPO: FY23, Q124 Results Reviewed | Sales Mix Impacts | Recent Monthly Revenue Trend

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

Full Truck Alliance: Currently Less Than 'Full Loaded', but Issues Are Fully Fixable

FTA's shares are down 66% vs their IPO price, but underlying performance has been mixed. To ensure long-term growth, FTA should follow our two-part...

Tracking Traffic

Chinese Express H124 Earnings | Worst of Price Competition Over | Look for Bargains | BUY SF, Yunda

In the run up to SF Holding's secondary listing in Hong Kong, we're "boomerang"-ing some recent Smartkarma insights covering the company and...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Core EBITDA Margins Compare Favorably to Most Express Peers in China and US

In the run up to SF Holding's secondary listing in Hong Kong, we're "boomerang"-ing some recent Smartkarma insights covering the company and...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Dominance in Domestic Time-Definite (Air) Express Is a Durable Differentiator

In the run up to SF Holding's secondary listing in Hong Kong, we're "boomerang"-ing some recent Smartkarma insights covering the company and...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding Pre-IPO: FY23, Q124 Results Reviewed | Sales Mix Impacts | Recent Monthly Revenue Trend

In the run up to SF Holding's secondary listing in Hong Kong, we're "boomerang"-ing some recent Smartkarma insights covering the company and...

Tracking Traffic

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