Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Quantitative Analysis

After weather-driven weakness earlier in the summer, TMI's text-mined Machinery Sentiment Indicator recovered to +1.8x STDEV this week, its best reading since January, with our news attribution pointing to China infrastructure as the key catalyst.  Unlike the US, where residential is currently the sole source of construction growth while infrastructure lags (see our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-snapshot-sentiment-analysis-suggests-infrastructure-likely-a-drag-on-us-non-res-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43050" rel="noopener">TMI Snapshot: Sentiment Analysis Suggests Infrastructure Likely A Drag On US Non-Res Construction</a>), our China indicators are showing the exact opposite dynamic as the momentum of the earlier post-COVID residential property boom slows down while infrastructure starts picking up the slack.

After weather-driven weakness earlier in the summer, TMI's text-mined Machinery Sentiment Indicator recovered to +1.8x STDEV this week, its best reading since January, with our news attribution pointing to China infrastructure as the key catalyst.  Unlike the US, where residential is currently the sole source of construction growth while infrastructure lags (see our TMI Snapshot: Sentiment Analysis Suggests Infrastructure Likely A Drag On US Non-Res Construction), our China indicators are showing the exact opposite dynamic as the momentum of the earlier post-COVID residential property boom slows down while infrastructure starts picking up the slack.

TMI Snapshot:  Machinery Sentiment Indicator At 8-Month High on China Infrastructure Push

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Indonesian real estate sector, including the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, regulatory and accounting developments, and the macro outlook. We also comment broadly on the H1/20 results of the Indonesian real estate players under our coverage. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Indonesian real estate sector, including the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, regulatory and accounting developments, and the macro outlook. We also comment broadly on the H1/20 results of the Indonesian real estate players under our coverage.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Indonesian Property Update (2020) - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of August includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of August includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - August 2020 - Lucror Analytics

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a>'s 6.2% YoY growth in profit in 1H20 is mostly boosted by a 56.4% YoY gains from investment in financial assets. Excluding this, earnings have declined by 6.4% YoY. There is mild contraction in gross margin (-0.4pp YoY) as sales value for most product categories have declined YoY. While the 1H20 result is not very disappointing, it compared unfavourably against its construction machinery peers. Fundamentally, we still like its exposure to the government's massive infrastructure spending and strong financial position (net cash equals to 27% of share price). Also, its unit sales have already gathered pace in the last two months. However, the market may take some time to observe if Lonking can catch up its unit sales with peers. As a result, we believe there is opportunity to pick up the stock at a lower price, possibly close to the historical average P/B of 0.8x, or around HK$2.15-2.20 level. At the moment, it trades on 0.98x.

Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)'s 6.2% YoY growth in profit in 1H20 is mostly boosted by a 56.4% YoY gains from investment in financial assets. Excluding this, earnings have declined by 6.4% YoY. There is mild contraction in gross margin (-0.4pp YoY) as sales value for most product categories have declined YoY. While the 1H20 result is not very disappointing, it compared unfavourably against its construction machinery peers. Fundamentally, we still like its exposure to the government's massive infrastructure spending and strong financial position (net cash equals to 27% of share price). Also, its unit sales have already gathered pace in the last two months. However, the market may take some time to observe if Lonking can catch up its unit sales with peers. As a result, we believe there is opportunity to pick up the stock at a lower price, possibly close to the historical average P/B of 0.8x, or around HK$2.15-2.20 level. At the moment, it trades on 0.98x. 

Lonking (3339 HK): 1H20 Fuelled by Investment Income but Core Profit Down

Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Chuanyi Zhou

Credit Analyst

Zoomlion’s H1/20 results were strong, despite a weak Q1 on account of COVID-19. Revenue growth was supported by positive market sentiment from the construction and agriculture segments. Margins have been expanding. In addition, credit metrics are improving, the increase in borrowings notwithstanding. The recent private placement is credit positive, and will further improve Zoomlion’s leverage. We note that the construction equipment industry has continued to recover, benefiting from rising replacement demand and infrastructure investments. In H1/20, excavator sales in China were up 24% y-o-y, supported by increased infrastructure investment in Q2. The country continues to increase its emphasis on the agriculture sector against the backdrop of COVID-19, which may spur more activity in the market for agricultural machinery.

  Zoomlion’s H1/20 results were strong, despite a weak Q1 on account of COVID-19. Revenue growth was supported by positive market sentiment from the construction and agriculture segments. Margins have been expanding. In addition, credit metrics are improving, the increase in borrowings notwithstanding. The recent private placement is credit positive, and will further improve Zoomlion’s leverage.   We note that the construction equipment industry has continued to recover, benefiting from rising replacement demand and infrastructure investments. In H1/20, excavator sales in China were up 24% y-o-y, supported by increased infrastructure investment in Q2. The country continues to increase its emphasis on the agriculture sector against the backdrop of COVID-19, which may spur more activity in the market for agricultural machinery. 

Zoomlion - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2020 Results - Lucror Analytics

China

Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd.manufactures and markets construction machinery.  The Company's products include concrete machinery, cranes, road machinery, drilling equipment, and other heavy construction equipment.  Zoomlion also produces environmental machinery and satellite navigation products.

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Zoomlion Heavy Industry S A (000157 CH)

TMI Snapshot: Machinery Sentiment Indicator At 8-Month High on China Infrastructure Push

TMI's Machinery Indicator has surged t

Elan Gore

Asia HY Monthly - Indonesian Property Update (2020) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Indonesian real estate sector, including the impact of the ongoing COVID-19...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - August 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of August includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas....

Lucror Analytics

Lonking (3339 HK): 1H20 Fuelled by Investment Income but Core Profit Down

Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)'s 6.2% YoY growth in profit in 1H20 is mostly boosted by a 56.4% YoY gains from investment in financial assets....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Zoomlion - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2020 Results - Lucror Analytics

Zoomlion’s H1/20 results were strong, despite a weak Q1 on account of COVID-19. Revenue growth was supported by positive market sentiment from the...

Lucror Analytics

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