China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

While it is built up on leverage which is built upon leverage which is built upon even more leverage, there is strong evidence that the real economy in China continues to stabilize and even expand.  Virtually all granular data collected in May 2016, supports the hypothesis that real output has not simply stabilized but grown. This leads us to believe that current estimates of both official and unofficial PMI due to be released on June 1, underestimate the expected value.  Wind currently provides…

While it is built up on leverage which is built upon leverage which is built upon even more leverage, there is strong evidence that the real economy in China continues to stabilize and even expand.  Virtually all granular data collected in May 2016, supports the hypothesis that real output has not simply stabilized but grown. This leads us to believe that current estimates of both official and unofficial PMI due to be released on June 1, underestimate the expected value.  Wind currently provides…

Early PMI Reading Before Official June 1 Release

With Chinese manufacturing showing signs of improvements post-Chinese New Year, it could be said that the country’s economy is regaining its strength.  China owes much of this stabilization to rapid growth in debt levels, investment, and declining outflows from tightened capital controls. Conversely, this implies it appears to be falling back on old drivers to keep growth high. Manufacturing is regaining some momentum due to increased exports and price increases in heavy industry like steel…

With Chinese manufacturing showing signs of improvements post-Chinese New Year, it could be said that the country’s economy is regaining its strength.  China owes much of this stabilization to rapid growth in debt levels, investment, and declining outflows from tightened capital controls. Conversely, this implies it appears to be falling back on old drivers to keep growth high. Manufacturing is regaining some momentum due to increased exports and price increases in heavy industry like steel…

Despite all the focus on Chinese financial markets and the accompanying imbalances, there are questions about how exactly to trade China right now.  Many have used the China blowing up thesis trying to replicate the Big Short.  This seems like a risky trade with a potentially very lengthy wait. There are other obvious trades in the interim that seem to have significantly positive risk adjusted return potential.  The trade today builds on one of the most widely recognized imbalances but creates…

Despite all the focus on Chinese financial markets and the accompanying imbalances, there are questions about how exactly to trade China right now.  Many have used the China blowing up thesis trying to replicate the Big Short.  This seems like a risky trade with a potentially very lengthy wait. There are other obvious trades in the interim that seem to have significantly positive risk adjusted return potential.  The trade today builds on one of the most widely recognized imbalances but creates…

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Progressively weaker data from China is likely to increase expectations of further depreciation of the RMB, while a continued decline in FX reserves and resulting lower liquidity in the system will add to further stress in the economy.China’s data releases of late have broadly continued to trend lower, with slower growth not just seen in industrial production, but also in loan growth as well as fixed asset investment. It is the renewed slowdown in these two data releases after a period of…

Progressively weaker data from China is likely to increase expectations of further depreciation of the RMB, while a continued decline in FX reserves and resulting lower liquidity in the system will add to further stress in the economy.China’s data releases of late have broadly continued to trend lower, with slower growth not just seen in industrial production, but also in loan growth as well as fixed asset investment. It is the renewed slowdown in these two data releases after a period of…

China: Renewed Concerns About Extent of Slowdown

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Mixed monetary stance adopted by the central banks; dry bulk shipping stage a comeback• China’s thrust is on credit expansion, but growth remains sluggish• Investors’ interest reignited in dry bulk stocks amid the rally in Baltic indices• Gas shipping stocks getting back on investors’ radar; Gaslog emerges as the top performer• Amid container industry realignment, price performance a mixed bag• Correction in tanker stock valuations inevitable as freight rates to soften further • Well-ingrained dampeners surprise with growth for ports

Mixed monetary stance adopted by the central banks; dry bulk shipping stage a comeback• China’s thrust is on credit expansion, but growth remains sluggish• Investors’ interest reignited in dry bulk stocks amid the rally in Baltic indices• Gas shipping stocks getting back on investors’ radar; Gaslog emerges as the top performer• Amid container industry realignment, price performance a mixed bag• Correction in tanker stock valuations inevitable as freight rates to soften further • Well-ingrained dampeners surprise with growth for ports

China

Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd. provides and integrates train-borne electrical systems for the PRC Railway industry.  The Company also develops, manufactures, and sells train power converters, auxiliary power supply equipment and control systems for trains for urban rail systems

Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd. (3898 HK)

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Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd. (3898 HK)

Early PMI Reading Before Official June 1 Release

While it is built up on leverage which is built upon leverage which is built upon even more leverage, there is strong evidence that the real...

Christopher Balding

Early Look at May Chinese Data

With Chinese manufacturing showing signs of improvements post-Chinese New Year, it could be said that the country’s economy is regaining its...

Christopher Balding

Trading China: The Little Short

Despite all the focus on Chinese financial markets and the accompanying imbalances, there are questions about how exactly to trade China right...

Christopher Balding

China: Renewed Concerns About Extent of Slowdown

Progressively weaker data from China is likely to increase expectations of further depreciation of the RMB, while a continued decline in FX...

Rajan Govil

DMER Equity Insights - May 2016

Mixed monetary stance adopted by the central banks; dry bulk shipping stage a comeback• China’s thrust is on credit expansion, but growth remains...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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