IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34119:1" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics (1292621D CH)</a> operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch.</p><p>ANE is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-logistics-ipo-initiation-home-delivery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57807" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery</a>, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we look at the PHIP which discloses the 4M21 results and recent developments. The PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs.</p></div>

ANE Logistics (1292621D CH) operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch.ANE is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.In ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. In this note, we look at the PHIP which discloses the 4M21 results and recent developments. The PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34119:1" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics (1292621D CH)</a> operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch.</p><p>ANE passed its HKEx listing committee hearing and will start pre-marketing to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)</a>, CDH, CPE, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nws-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3350:1" rel="noopener">Nws Holdings (659 HK)</a>, Ping An, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldman-sachs-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:785:1" rel="noopener">Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yili-indus-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3220:1" rel="noopener">Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)</a>.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. On balance, we think that ANE’s fundamentals are solid and the IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. </p></div>

ANE Logistics (1292621D CH) operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch.ANE passed its HKEx listing committee hearing and will start pre-marketing to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle Group Inc (CG US), CDH, CPE, Nws Holdings (659 HK), Ping An, Goldman Sachs Group (GS US) and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH).ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. On balance, we think that ANE’s fundamentals are solid and the IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. 

ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> , the logistics arm of China’s second largest e-commerce platform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> has priced its IPO at HK$40.36 a share, about 2.5% higher than the lower end of the IPO price range of HK$39.36-43.36 a share despite generating significant interest from both retail and institutional investors. According to news media outlets, the offer was oversubscribed by more than 700x.</p><p>JD Logistics will raise approx. HK$24.6bn at the IPO price of HK$40.36 per share (assuming over-allotment is not exercised). If the over-allotment option of additional 90m shares is exercised, JD Logistics’ will raise additional proceeds of HK$3.6bn increasing the total proceeds to HK$28.2bn.</p>

JD Logistics (2618 HK) , the logistics arm of China’s second largest e-commerce platform JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) has priced its IPO at HK$40.36 a share, about 2.5% higher than the lower end of the IPO price range of HK$39.36-43.36 a share despite generating significant interest from both retail and institutional investors. According to news media outlets, the offer was oversubscribed by more than 700x.JD Logistics will raise approx. HK$24.6bn at the IPO price of HK$40.36 per share (assuming over-allotment is not exercised). If the over-allotment option of additional 90m shares is exercised, JD Logistics’ will raise additional proceeds of HK$3.6bn increasing the total proceeds to HK$28.2bn.

JD Logistics IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics will commence trading on Friday, 28 May. JD Logistics priced its IPO at HK$40.36 and the shares <a href="https://inews.hket.com/article/2967663/%E3%80%90%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1IPO%E3%80%91%E4%BA%AC%E6%9D%B1%E7%89%A9%E6%B5%812618%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E5%8D%87%E9%80%BE3%E6%88%90%E3%80%80%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E5%B8%B3%E9%9D%A2%E8%B3%BA%E7%B4%841200%E5%85%83?mtc=40001&amp;srkw=IPO%E6%9C%80%E5%BF%AB%E6%9C%80%E9%BD%8A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stood 31% higher</a> at HK$53.00 in the Futu securities' grey market.</p><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-prioritizing-market-share-gains-over-margins" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50976" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins</a>, we noted that the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. We opined that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51524" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that the IPO price range is attractive, particularly in the context of JD Logistics' positioning and higher than peers forecasted growth.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target is HK$48.91 per share. Our DCF sensitivity and relative valuation analysis shows that the IPO price is attractive and the grey market price is justifiable. </p></div>
</div>

JD Logistics (2618 HK) is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics will commence trading on Friday, 28 May. JD Logistics priced its IPO at HK$40.36 and the shares stood 31% higher at HK$53.00 in the Futu securities' grey market.
In JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins, we noted that the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. We opined that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. In JD Logistics IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price range is attractive, particularly in the context of JD Logistics' positioning and higher than peers forecasted growth.
Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target is HK$48.91 per share. Our DCF sensitivity and relative valuation analysis shows that the IPO price is attractive and the grey market price is justifiable. 


<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foru-worldwide-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33314:1" rel="noopener">Foru Worldwide (FOYO US)</a> is the largest technology-driven road freight transportation platform in China as measured by revenue in 2020, according to CIC. ForU claims to have fully digitalized every step of freight transportation by offering a Freight-as-a-Service (FaaS) service to shippers. ForU is seeking to raise $500 million through a Nasdaq listing, according to press reports. ForU is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> which owns 6.3% of the outstanding shares. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>At first sight, ForU recent results look stunning due to fast-paced growth and declining loss margin. However, a closer look, suggests that the business faces several challenges and the financials on a normalised basis appears to be middling at best. Overall, we are inclined to give the ForU IPO a pass.    </p></div><p>As an aside, for readers interested in the upcoming JD Logistics IPO, we highlight some of our coverage - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-initiation-the-flow-of-things" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48279" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51524" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </p>

Foru Worldwide (FOYO US) is the largest technology-driven road freight transportation platform in China as measured by revenue in 2020, according to CIC. ForU claims to have fully digitalized every step of freight transportation by offering a Freight-as-a-Service (FaaS) service to shippers. ForU is seeking to raise $500 million through a Nasdaq listing, according to press reports. ForU is backed by JD Logistics (2618 HK) which owns 6.3% of the outstanding shares. At first sight, ForU recent results look stunning due to fast-paced growth and declining loss margin. However, a closer look, suggests that the business faces several challenges and the financials on a normalised basis appears to be middling at best. Overall, we are inclined to give the ForU IPO a pass.    As an aside, for readers interested in the upcoming JD Logistics IPO, we highlight some of our coverage - JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things and JD Logistics IPO: Valuation Insights. 

China

STO Express Co Ltd. develops, manufactures and markets valves, pipe fittings and plumbing equipment. The Company's business encompasses the    development, manufacturing, sales and servicing of plumbing equipment, valves,  pipe fittings, metal construction materials, home automation, environmental protection and energy control systems.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

STO Express (002468 CH)

ANE IPO: The Freight Debate

ANE is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 m. The PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE is worth a look for investors willing...

Arun George

ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery

ANE will start pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 m. We think that ANE’s fundamentals are solid and the IPO is worth a look for...

Arun George

JD Logistics IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading

By pricing JD Logistics' shares close to the lower end of the IPO price range, we believe the company is offering enough room for shares to rise...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

JD Logistics IPO: Trading Debut

JD Logistics priced its IPO at HK$40.36 and stood 31% higher at HK$53.00 in the grey market. Our DCF sensitivity and relative valuation analysis...

Arun George

ForU Worldwide IPO Initiation: Not ForU

ForU is seeking to raise $500 m through a Nasdaq listing. We think that the business faces several challenges and the financials on a normalised...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)