Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

In this note, we highlight the outperformers and underperformers among EM currencies as US long-end yields have come off from their peak at the end of last month.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

In this note, we highlight the outperformers and underperformers among EM currencies as US long-end yields have come off from their peak at the end of last month.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

FX Dashboard: Leaders and Laggards in EM FX as US Yields Retreat from the Peak

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Buy DXY 91 to 90.50 overshoot to a align with the SPX top of the rising wedge near 4,180 for a peak in risk. Late April is the ideal timeline for a USD low base to form as a rally platform for a risk off cycle in May/June.Expect some key lows for the USD in EM to pressure EM equities in coming months. USD in Asia bearish tactically into targeted lows to reverse positioning to long the USD.

Buy DXY 91 to 90.50 overshoot to a align with the SPX top of the rising wedge near 4,180 for a peak in risk. Late April is the ideal timeline for a USD low base to form as a rally platform for a risk off cycle in May/June.Expect some key lows for the USD in EM to pressure EM equities in coming months. USD in Asia bearish tactically into targeted lows to reverse positioning to long the USD.

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend going long the Russian ruble (RUB) against the South African rand (ZAR) in a beta-neutral ratio. The ruble has lagged the rest of EM and the rally in oil in anticipation of the US imposing sanctions. The sanctions are now behind, which should allow the currency to catch up. Meanwhile, the rand has outperformed the rest of EM on the back of a hawkish central bank and an improving current account balance. We expect the central bank to delay rate hikes and the current account has likely peaked already.

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend going long the Russian ruble (RUB) against the South African rand (ZAR) in a beta-neutral ratio. The ruble has lagged the rest of EM and the rally in oil in anticipation of the US imposing sanctions. The sanctions are now behind, which should allow the currency to catch up. Meanwhile, the rand has outperformed the rest of EM on the back of a hawkish central bank and an improving current account balance. We expect the central bank to delay rate hikes and the current account has likely peaked already.

Alpha Bites: Long Russian Ruble (RUB) Vs Short South African Rand (ZAR)

In this note, we go over the reasons behind the strong performance of the South African rand (ZAR) and argue that while the environment is supportive, continued outperformance may lead to an opportunity to short the currency.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

In this note, we go over the reasons behind the strong performance of the South African rand (ZAR) and argue that while the environment is supportive, continued outperformance may lead to an opportunity to short the currency.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

FX Dashboard: South African Rand’s Outperformance Continues

We discuss the recent underperformance of the Taiwan dollar in the context of the possibility that the US Treasury may label the country a currency manipulator this month.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

We discuss the recent underperformance of the Taiwan dollar in the context of the possibility that the US Treasury may label the country a currency manipulator this month.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

FX Dashboard: Correlation of Taiwan Dollar with Rest of Asia Picks Up

South Africa

The South African rand is the official currency of The Republic of South Africa.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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ZAR (USDZAR CURNCY)

FX Dashboard: Leaders and Laggards in EM FX as US Yields Retreat from the Peak

In this note, we highlight the outperformers and underperformers among EM currencies as US long-end yields have come off from their peak at the end...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

USD Buy Levels to Sync with Peak in Risk

Buy DXY 91 to 90.50 overshoot to a align with the SPX top of the rising wedge near 4,180 for a peak in risk. Late April is the ideal timeline for a...

Thomas Schroeder

Alpha Bites: Long Russian Ruble (RUB) Vs Short South African Rand (ZAR)

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend going long the Russian ruble (RUB) against the South African rand (ZAR) in a beta-neutral ratio.

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: South African Rand’s Outperformance Continues

In this note, we go over the reasons behind the strong performance of the South African rand (ZAR) and argue that continued outperformance may lead...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Correlation of Taiwan Dollar with Rest of Asia Picks Up

We discuss the recent underperformance of the Taiwan dollar in the context of the possibility that the US Treasury may label the country a currency...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)