Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

The Peruvian sol has depreciated to its historically weakest level ahead of the presidential runoff election this weekend. We find the currency to be attractive from the point of view of valuations, macroeconomic fundamentals, and a fragmented Congress preventing radical policymaking. However, given the binary risks, we suggest waiting until after the election for a better entry point.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

The Peruvian sol has depreciated to its historically weakest level ahead of the presidential runoff election this weekend. We find the currency to be attractive from the point of view of valuations, macroeconomic fundamentals, and a fragmented Congress preventing radical policymaking. However, given the binary risks, we suggest waiting until after the election for a better entry point.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Timing the Entry for Peruvian Sol

In this note, we discuss the currencies that can perform well even if, following the sharp depreciation over the past two months, the US dollar becomes rangebound, taking away the impetus for EM currencies to appreciate on aggregate.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

In this note, we discuss the currencies that can perform well even if, following the sharp depreciation over the past two months, the US dollar becomes rangebound, taking away the impetus for EM currencies to appreciate on aggregate.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: EM Currencies to Target in the Late Recovery Phase

Despite its recent underperformance, we reiterate our bullish view on the Mexican peso (MXN) as the country's growth outlook gets revised higher and the central bank will likely start tightening monetary policy this year. In our view, the concerns regarding the upcoming change at the helm of the central bank are overstated.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

Despite its recent underperformance, we reiterate our bullish view on the Mexican peso (MXN) as the country's growth outlook gets revised higher and the central bank will likely start tightening monetary policy this year. In our view, the concerns regarding the upcoming change at the helm of the central bank are overstated.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Stay Bullish on Mexican Peso

Following the recent rally in the Indian rupee, we assess that there is more upside in the currency but suggest targeting a better entry point as uncertainties remain.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

Following the recent rally in the Indian rupee, we assess that there is more upside in the currency but suggest targeting a better entry point as uncertainties remain.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Does the Indian Rupee Have More Room to Run?

We recommend staying away from the lira despite the high carry and attractive valuations as it is being weighed down by the risk of the central bank easing too early, a high current account deficit, low international reserves, and high short-term foreign debt.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

We recommend staying away from the lira despite the high carry and attractive valuations as it is being weighed down by the risk of the central bank easing too early, a high current account deficit, low international reserves, and high short-term foreign debt.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Avoid the Lira as Turkey Remains Mired in a Crisis

South Africa

The South African rand is the official currency of The Republic of South Africa.

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FX Dashboard: Timing the Entry for Peruvian Sol

With the Peruvian sol depreciating to its historically weakest level ahead of the presidential runoff election this weekend, we suggest waiting...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: EM Currencies to Target in the Late Recovery Phase

In this note, we discuss the currencies that can perform well even if the US dollar becomes rangebound going forward, taking away the impetus for...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Stay Bullish on Mexican Peso

We reiterate our bullish view on the Mexican peso (MXN) as the country's growth outlook gets revised higher and the central bank will likely start...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Does the Indian Rupee Have More Room to Run?

Following the recent rally in the Indian rupee, we assess that there is more upside in the currency but suggest targeting a better entry point as...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Avoid the Lira as Turkey Remains Mired in a Crisis

We recommend staying away from the lira despite the high carry and attractive valuations as it is being weighed down by the risk of the central...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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