Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>March parcel volume growth (22.7%) improved against an easy comp (-3.1%) from 2022</li>
<li>Prices are declining, too (-3.2% Y/Y) -- not yet precipitous, but worst since Q1 2022</li>
<li>Based on what we see, ZTO's 2023 volume targets will still be difficult to meet</li>
</ul>


March parcel volume growth (22.7%) improved against an easy comp (-3.1%) from 2022
Prices are declining, too (-3.2% Y/Y) -- not yet precipitous, but worst since Q1 2022
Based on what we see, ZTO's 2023 volume targets will still be difficult to meet


TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: Volume Up Versus Weak Comp | Prices Down | Yunda Lags Group

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Combined January-February express industry parcel volume was up just 4.6% Y/Y, and ASPs were down -1.8% Y/Y</li>
<li>Listed express companies' parcel volume and government-reported online tangible goods sales in the first two months of 2023 also both up a modest ~5% Y/Y</li>
<li>In a year when one express player hopes to list its shares, it's unclear who will be willing to concede market share. We expect price competition to intensify in 2023.</li>
</ul>


Combined January-February express industry parcel volume was up just 4.6% Y/Y, and ASPs were down -1.8% Y/Y
Listed express companies' parcel volume and government-reported online tangible goods sales in the first two months of 2023 also both up a modest ~5% Y/Y
In a year when one express player hopes to list its shares, it's unclear who will be willing to concede market share. We expect price competition to intensify in 2023.


TRACKING TRAFFIC: Chinese Express / No Signs of a Sharp Recovery in Jan-Feb Data

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23628:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express (ZTO US)</a> met consensus Q422 EPS estimate despite a miss on Revenue</li>
<li>Management expects to exceed industry volume growth (around +10%) in 2023</li>
<li>Likely obstacles to a sharp earnings recovery are: ASP momentum, "new-old" competition, and a lack of demonstrated cost control</li>
</ul>



ZTO Express (ZTO US) met consensus Q422 EPS estimate despite a miss on Revenue
Management expects to exceed industry volume growth (around +10%) in 2023
Likely obstacles to a sharp earnings recovery are: ASP momentum, "new-old" competition, and a lack of demonstrated cost control


ZTO Express Q4/2022 Results & Guidance:  Moderate Growth in '23, but Also Obstacles

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>IPO / Five things to know about China’s latest IPO system overhaul</li><li>Missing / Police say student missing for 100 days hanged himself</li><li>Politics / China completes provincial leadership reshuffle ahead of ‘Two Sessions’</li></ul>

IPO / Five things to know about China’s latest IPO system overhaulMissing / Police say student missing for 100 days hanged himselfPolitics / China completes provincial leadership reshuffle ahead of ‘Two Sessions’

CX Daily: Five Things to Know About China’s Latest IPO System Overhaul

<ul>
<li>China’s major express couriers will charge more for their services over the Lunar New Year period</li>
<li>
Express couriers, which mainly serve e-commerce sellers, typically see a lower volume of packages over the Lunar New Year when those businesses shut down. 
</li>
<li>
Consumers generally buy their new years goods around a month before the festival, when such firms plan for a rush.
</li>
</ul>


China’s major express couriers will charge more for their services over the Lunar New Year period

Express couriers, which mainly serve e-commerce sellers, typically see a lower volume of packages over the Lunar New Year when those businesses shut down. 


Consumers generally buy their new years goods around a month before the festival, when such firms plan for a rush.



China Couriers Hike Lunar New Year Prices as Delivery Riders Head Home

China

YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. provides global express services. The Company also provides general cargo warehousing, domestic air transport agency, car rental, supply chain management, and other related services throughout China..

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YTO Express (600233 CH)

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: Volume Up Versus Weak Comp | Prices Down | Yunda Lags Group

In March, Chinese express industry volume was up 22.7% Y/Y against easy comps, but ASPs declined the most since February 2022. We still believe ZTO...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC: Chinese Express / No Signs of a Sharp Recovery in Jan-Feb Data

So far in 2023, parcel volume has recovered only moderately. We believe the industry may again see price deterioration after a brief respite in 2022.

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q4/2022 Results & Guidance: Moderate Growth in '23, but Also Obstacles

ZTO guides strong volume growth and potentially better unit economics in '23, but we expect price pressure to return, and the company needs to rein...

Daniel Hellberg

CX Daily: Five Things to Know About China’s Latest IPO System Overhaul

Five things to know about China’s latest IPO system overhaul. Police say student missing for 100 days hanged himself. China completes provincial...

Caixin Global

China Couriers Hike Lunar New Year Prices as Delivery Riders Head Home

China’s major express couriers will charge more for their services over the Lunar New Year period. Express couriers, which mainly serve e-commerce...

Caixin Global

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